Moving Average Analysis of ETFC

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

ETFC: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for E TRADE Financial Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on ETFC stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to ETFC stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




ETFC: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on AT and T, ticker symbol T. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. and Electronic Data Systems.

From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from Mylan Inc., TECO Energy, Inc., MicroSoft, and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.56 % minus 1.92 % = -3.48 %-29.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 0.37 % = 0.91 %46.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.19 % = 0.50 %63.23 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 8.30 % minus 1.92 % = 6.38 %53.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.44 % minus 0.37 % = -0.80 %-40.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.60 % minus 0.19 % = -0.79 %-100.83 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 95 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 1.92 % = -1.74 %-14.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.37 % = -0.32 %-16.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.19 % = -0.21 %-26.07 %
Sell Signals - 95 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 1.92 % = -1.91 %-16.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.37 % = -0.74 %-37.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.19 % = -0.55 %-69.49 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 1.92 % = -1.91 %-16.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.37 % = -0.47 %-24.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.66 % minus 0.19 % = -0.85 %-108.45 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 1.92 % = -2.63 %-22.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.91 % minus 0.37 % = -1.28 %-65.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.19 % = -0.39 %-49.88 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 300 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 1.92 % = -0.43 %-3.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.37 % = -0.48 %-24.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.19 % = -0.72 %-91.26 %
Sell Signals - 301 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.34 % minus 1.92 % = 0.42 %3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.37 % = 0.24 %12.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.19 % = 0.32 %40.88 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 415 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.42 % minus 1.92 % = 0.50 %4.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.37 % = 0.31 %15.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.19 % = 0.33 %41.84 %
Sell Signals - 414 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.91 % minus 1.92 % = -0.01 %-0.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.37 % = -0.24 %-12.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.30 %-37.48 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.85 % minus 1.92 % = -0.07 %-0.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.37 % = -0.11 %-5.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.19 % = 0.04 %5.55 %
Sell Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 1.92 % = -1.22 %-10.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.74 % minus 0.37 % = -1.11 %-56.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.85 % minus 0.19 % = -1.04 %-132.21 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 116 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 1.92 % = -1.74 %-14.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.37 % = -0.01 %-0.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %12.66 %
Sell Signals - 117 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.66 % minus 1.92 % = -2.58 %-21.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.37 % = -0.14 %-7.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.35 %-44.54 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.21 % minus 1.92 % = -3.13 %-26.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.44 % minus 0.37 % = 1.08 %54.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 2.03 % minus 0.19 % = 1.84 %233.52 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 1.92 % = -1.81 %-15.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.75 % minus 0.37 % = -1.11 %-56.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %-4.87 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 102 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 5.09 % minus 1.92 % = 3.17 %26.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.37 % = 0.48 %24.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.19 % = -0.20 %-24.96 %
Sell Signals - 100 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.56 % minus 1.92 % = -2.48 %-21.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.37 % = -1.05 %-53.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.62 % minus 0.19 % = -0.81 %-102.89 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 3.17 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -2.63 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.08 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.28 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.84 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.04 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..



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Moving Average Convergence for E TRADE Financial Corporation Stock Prices - ETFC