Moving Average Analysis of FE

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of FirstEnergy Corp.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to FE stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for FE.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of FirstEnergy Corp.
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 0.60 % = 0.86 %7.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.12 % = 0.44 %22.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.06 % = -0.01 %-0.92 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.60 % = -0.25 %-2.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.12 % = -0.33 %-16.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.06 % = -0.36 %-45.57 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 90 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.60 % = -0.17 %-1.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.12 % = 0.22 %10.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.06 % = 0.20 %25.97 %
Sell Signals - 90 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.50 % minus 0.60 % = 0.90 %7.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.12 % = 0.44 %22.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.06 % = 0.36 %45.48 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.70 % minus 0.60 % = -1.31 %-11.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.23 %-11.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.06 % = 0.07 %8.87 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.60 % = -1.32 %-11.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.61 % minus 0.12 % = -0.73 %-37.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.76 % minus 0.06 % = -0.82 %-103.68 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 306 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.60 % = -0.10 %-0.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.12 % = -0.10 %-5.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.06 % = -0.17 %-21.03 %
Sell Signals - 305 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.60 % = 0.12 %0.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.01 %-0.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.06 % = 0.05 %5.89 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 416 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.60 % = -0.18 %-1.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.03 %-1.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.06 % = 0.07 %9.17 %
Sell Signals - 416 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.60 % = -0.17 %-1.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.03 %-1.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.06 % = 0.04 %4.69 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 173 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.60 % = 0.46 %3.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.12 % = 0.16 %8.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.06 % = 0.05 %6.64 %
Sell Signals - 173 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.60 % = 0.09 %0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.12 % = 0.21 %10.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.06 % = 0.14 %17.55 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 95 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.60 % = 0.44 %3.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.12 % = -0.25 %-12.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.06 % = -0.24 %-30.40 %
Sell Signals - 95 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.60 % = -0.19 %-1.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.12 % = -0.45 %-23.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.06 % = -0.16 %-20.64 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.60 % = 0.32 %2.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 0.12 % = -0.63 %-32.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.06 % = -0.14 %-17.72 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.60 % = -1.31 %-11.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.12 % = 0.33 %16.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.06 % = 0.46 %58.69 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 99 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.60 % = -0.09 %-0.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.12 % = 0.04 %1.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.09 %-11.26 %
Sell Signals - 80 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.60 % = 0.23 %1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.12 % = -0.39 %-19.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.06 % = -0.28 %-35.02 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.86 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.32 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.44 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.73 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.20 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.82 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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FirstEnergy Corp. Moving Averages - FE