FHN Averages

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, FHN would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -15.00 % under the line.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of First Horizon National Corporation
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for First Horizon National Corporation:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to FHN stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to FHN stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of First Horizon National Corporation
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.97 % = -0.13 %-1.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.21 % = 0.04 %2.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.11 % = 0.15 %18.83 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.97 % = -1.41 %-11.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.05 % minus 0.21 % = -1.27 %-64.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.29 % minus 0.11 % = -1.40 %-177.41 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.05 % minus 0.97 % = 1.09 %9.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.21 % = 0.60 %30.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.11 % = 0.36 %45.21 %
Sell Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.97 % = -0.24 %-1.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.21 % = -0.19 %-9.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.11 % = 0.00 %-0.11 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.96 % minus 0.97 % = 1.99 %16.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.21 % = 0.51 %25.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.11 % = 0.02 %2.31 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.97 % = -0.54 %-4.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.21 % = -0.88 %-44.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.11 % = -0.49 %-62.31 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 486 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.97 % = -0.26 %-2.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.21 % = -0.14 %-7.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.11 % = -0.10 %-12.33 %
Sell Signals - 486 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.97 % = -0.20 %-1.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.21 % = 0.11 %5.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.11 % = 0.16 %20.59 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 694 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 0.97 % = 0.34 %2.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.21 % = 0.28 %14.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.11 % = 0.31 %39.19 %
Sell Signals - 694 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.09 % minus 0.97 % = 0.13 %1.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.21 % = -0.01 %-0.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.02 %-2.85 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 296 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.97 % = 0.06 %0.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.21 % = -0.01 %-0.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.11 % = -0.04 %-5.02 %
Sell Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.42 % minus 0.97 % = 0.46 %3.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.21 % = 0.12 %5.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.06 %-7.38 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 202 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.97 % = -0.56 %-4.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.21 % = -0.36 %-18.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.11 % = -0.21 %-27.23 %
Sell Signals - 202 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 0.97 % = 0.30 %2.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.21 % = 0.06 %3.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.11 % = 0.16 %20.57 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 0.97 % = 0.47 %3.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.21 % = -0.24 %-12.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 0.11 % = -0.62 %-79.30 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.26 % minus 0.97 % = -2.22 %-18.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.97 % minus 0.21 % = -1.18 %-60.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.73 % minus 0.11 % = -0.84 %-107.23 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.44 % minus 0.97 % = 0.47 %3.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.21 % = 0.26 %12.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.11 % = 0.10 %13.29 %
Sell Signals - 142 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.97 % = -1.33 %-11.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.21 % = -0.51 %-26.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.11 % = -0.31 %-39.37 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.99 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.22 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.60 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.40 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.40 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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First Horizon National Corporation Moving Averages - FHN