Moving Average Analysis of FII

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, FII is now 11.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Federated Investors, Inc.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Federated Investors, Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on FII stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to FII stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Federated Investors, Inc.
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.64 % minus 0.79 % = 1.85 %15.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.17 % = -0.60 %-30.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.09 % = -0.45 %-57.64 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.79 % = 0.53 %4.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.17 % = -0.28 %-14.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.09 % = -0.59 %-74.35 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 86 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.79 % = 0.14 %1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.28 % minus 0.17 % = -0.45 %-22.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.30 %
Sell Signals - 86 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.79 % = -0.67 %-5.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.17 % = -0.34 %-17.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.10 %-12.57 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.53 % minus 0.79 % = 0.75 %6.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.17 % = 0.69 %35.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.09 % = 0.68 %86.58 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.79 % = 0.09 %0.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.17 % = 0.08 %3.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.09 % = -0.32 %-40.83 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 334 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.79 % = 0.05 %0.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.27 %-13.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.09 % = -0.33 %-41.74 %
Sell Signals - 335 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.79 % = -0.15 %-1.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.17 % = -0.24 %-12.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.55 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 423 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.79 % = -0.15 %-1.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.17 % = -0.05 %-2.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-2.19 %
Sell Signals - 422 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.79 % = 0.08 %0.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.17 % = -0.03 %-1.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %-14.23 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.32 % minus 0.79 % = -1.11 %-9.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.44 % minus 0.17 % = -0.61 %-31.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.09 % = -0.46 %-57.90 %
Sell Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.79 % = -0.16 %-1.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.17 % = 0.09 %4.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.09 % = 0.26 %33.08 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.79 % = -1.00 %-8.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.17 % = -0.38 %-19.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.09 % = -0.28 %-35.21 %
Sell Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.79 % = -0.33 %-2.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.17 % = -0.38 %-19.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.09 % = -0.36 %-45.37 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 0.79 % = 0.60 %5.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.17 % = 0.12 %6.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.09 % = 0.17 %21.59 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.31 % minus 0.79 % = 0.52 %4.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.28 %-14.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.09 % = -0.39 %-49.06 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 112 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.79 % = -0.31 %-2.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.17 % = -0.03 %-1.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.09 % = 0.17 %21.44 %
Sell Signals - 81 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.79 % = -0.48 %-4.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.17 % = -0.05 %-2.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %3.89 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.85 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.67 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.69 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.68 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Federated Investors, Inc. Stock Prices - FII