Moving Average Analysis of FNFG

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, FNFG would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -2.00 % under the line.

FNFG: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for First Niagara Financial Group Inc.:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to FNFG stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for FNFG.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




FNFG: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.87 % minus 0.75 % = -1.63 %-13.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.16 % = 0.27 %13.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.08 % = 0.04 %5.09 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.28 % minus 0.75 % = 1.53 %12.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.16 % = 0.24 %12.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.08 % = 0.04 %5.38 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 106 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.75 % = 0.56 %4.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.16 % = 0.39 %19.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.08 % = 0.37 %46.94 %
Sell Signals - 106 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.75 % = -0.13 %-1.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.16 % = -0.42 %-21.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.08 % = -0.44 %-56.21 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.75 % = -0.45 %-3.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.16 % = 0.52 %26.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.08 % = 0.37 %47.01 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.75 % = -1.20 %-10.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.41 % minus 0.16 % = -0.57 %-28.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.47 % minus 0.08 % = -0.55 %-70.10 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 353 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.75 % = 0.41 %3.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.16 % = 0.11 %5.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.08 % = 0.09 %11.98 %
Sell Signals - 354 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.75 % = 0.25 %2.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.16 % = 0.03 %1.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.03 %-3.73 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 441 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.75 % = -0.03 %-0.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.16 % = -0.04 %-1.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.08 % = -0.01 %-0.74 %
Sell Signals - 440 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.75 % = -0.02 %-0.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.16 % = -0.01 %-0.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.08 % = 0.00 %-0.58 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 228 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.75 % = -0.10 %-0.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.16 % = -0.65 %-33.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.60 % minus 0.08 % = -0.68 %-86.07 %
Sell Signals - 228 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.77 % minus 0.75 % = 1.01 %8.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.16 % = 0.28 %14.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.08 % = 0.20 %25.44 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 148 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.75 % = -0.55 %-4.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.16 % = -0.46 %-23.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.46 % minus 0.08 % = -0.55 %-69.39 %
Sell Signals - 149 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.41 % minus 0.75 % = 0.65 %5.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.16 % = 0.44 %22.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.08 % = 0.47 %59.75 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.75 % = -1.48 %-12.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.16 % = 0.36 %18.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.08 % = 0.35 %44.15 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.71 % minus 0.75 % = 0.96 %8.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 0.16 % = -0.74 %-37.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.08 % = -0.42 %-53.84 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 86 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.75 % = 0.02 %0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.16 % = 0.25 %12.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.08 % = 0.15 %19.43 %
Sell Signals - 93 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.75 % = -0.29 %-2.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.16 % = -0.47 %-23.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.08 % = -0.42 %-53.39 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.56 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.20 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.52 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.74 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.37 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.55 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for First Niagara Financial Group Inc. Stock Prices - FNFG