Moving Average Analysis of FO

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

FO: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to FO stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to FO stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Fortune Brands, Inc.
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.78 % minus 1.80 % = -0.01 %-0.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.35 % = 0.40 %20.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.18 % = 0.10 %12.66 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.45 % minus 1.80 % = -0.35 %-2.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.35 % = -0.32 %-16.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.18 % = -0.33 %-41.70 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 229 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.21 % minus 1.80 % = 0.42 %3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.35 % = 0.38 %19.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.18 % = 0.04 %4.69 %
Sell Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 1.80 % = -0.46 %-3.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.35 % = -0.29 %-14.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.18 % = -0.21 %-26.34 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.73 % minus 1.80 % = -0.06 %-0.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.35 % = -0.35 %-17.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.18 % = -0.36 %-45.85 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.77 % minus 1.80 % = -0.02 %-0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.35 % = 0.21 %10.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.18 % = 0.29 %36.35 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 674 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.42 % minus 1.80 % = -0.37 %-3.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.35 % = -0.26 %-13.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.18 % = -0.15 %-19.50 %
Sell Signals - 667 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.79 % minus 1.80 % = -0.01 %-0.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.35 % = 0.20 %10.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.18 % = 0.29 %36.72 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 916 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.48 % minus 1.80 % = -0.31 %-2.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.35 % = -0.08 %-3.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %0.87 %
Sell Signals - 916 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.56 % minus 1.80 % = -0.24 %-2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.35 % = -0.05 %-2.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.18 % = 0.03 %3.93 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 386 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 1.80 % = -0.84 %-7.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.35 % = -0.39 %-19.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.18 % = -0.29 %-37.34 %
Sell Signals - 391 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.89 % minus 1.80 % = 0.10 %0.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.35 % = 0.18 %9.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %13.89 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 1.80 % = -0.67 %-5.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.35 % = -0.18 %-9.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.18 % = -0.21 %-27.09 %
Sell Signals - 267 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.25 % minus 1.80 % = 0.45 %3.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.35 % = 0.57 %28.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %14.26 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.52 % minus 1.80 % = 0.73 %6.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.35 % = -0.31 %-15.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.34 %-43.12 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 1.80 % = -0.81 %-6.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.35 % = -0.83 %-42.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.18 % = -0.48 %-61.43 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 274 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 1.80 % = -0.34 %-2.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.35 % = 0.03 %1.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.18 % = 0.09 %11.65 %
Sell Signals - 193 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.56 % minus 1.80 % = -0.23 %-1.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.35 % = -0.04 %-1.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.18 % = -0.07 %-8.99 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.73 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.81 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.40 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.83 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.10 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.48 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for FO Stock Prices