Moving Average Indicators for FOSL

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, FOSL is now 47.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Fossil, Inc.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on FOSL stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for FOSL.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.43 % minus 2.04 % = 0.39 %	3.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 0.41 % = 0.79 %	40.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.38 % minus 0.21 % = 1.17 %	149.04 %
Sell Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.26 % minus 2.04 % = 1.22 %	10.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.41 % = -0.37 %	-18.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.21 % = -0.18 %	-23.32 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 119 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.77 % minus 2.04 % = 0.73 %	6.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.41 % = 0.15 %	7.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.21 % = -0.07 %	-9.03 %
Sell Signals - 119 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.29 % minus 2.04 % = 1.25 %	10.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 0.41 % = 0.48 %	24.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.21 % = 0.28 %	35.24 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.60 % minus 2.04 % = -0.44 %	-3.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.41 % = -0.56 %	-28.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.02 % minus 0.21 % = -1.23 %	-156.40 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.43 % minus 2.04 % = -0.61 %	-5.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.41 % = 0.11 %	5.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 0.21 % = 0.70 %	88.28 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 403 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 2.04 % = -0.39 %	-3.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.41 % = -0.11 %	-5.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.21 % = -0.06 %	-7.79 %
Sell Signals - 403 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.79 % minus 2.04 % = -0.25 %	-2.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.41 % = -0.12 %	-5.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %	-14.86 %
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MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 555 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.29 % minus 2.04 % = 0.25 %	2.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.41 % = -0.10 %	-4.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.21 % = -0.07 %	-9.35 %
Sell Signals - 554 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.10 % minus 2.04 % = 0.07 %	0.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.41 % = 0.01 %	0.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %	-15.15 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.68 % minus 2.04 % = 1.64 %	13.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.41 % = 0.42 %	21.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.21 % = 0.36 %	45.45 %
Sell Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.30 % minus 2.04 % = 1.26 %	10.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.41 % = 0.28 %	14.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.21 % = 0.15 %	18.44 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.29 % minus 2.04 % = 0.25 %	2.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.41 % = 0.16 %	8.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.21 % = 0.12 %	15.05 %
Sell Signals - 145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.80 % minus 2.04 % = -0.24 %	-2.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.41 % = -0.28 %	-14.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.21 % = -0.29 %	-36.34 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.25 % minus 2.04 % = -3.28 %	-27.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 0.41 % = 0.23 %	11.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.21 % = 0.40 %	50.88 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.46 % minus 2.04 % = -0.58 %	-4.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.41 % = -0.57 %	-28.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.21 % = 0.22 %	28.17 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 142 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.24 % minus 2.04 % = 0.20 %	1.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.41 % = 0.02 %	0.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.21 % = 0.26 %	32.88 %
Sell Signals - 122 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.87 % minus 2.04 % = -1.16 %	-9.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.41 % = -0.83 %	-42.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.21 % = -0.43 %	-54.24 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.64 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.16 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.79 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.83 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.17 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.43 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

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Moving Average Analysis of - FOSL