Moving Average Indicators for FRX

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

FRX: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on FRX stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for FRX.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Forest Laboratories, Inc.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Friday, March 19, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Cincinnati Financial Corporation, ticker symbol CINF. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and Dupont (DD)

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.74 % minus 1.23 % = 0.51 %	4.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.25 % = 0.58 %	29.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.13 % = 0.28 %	35.09 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.78 % minus 1.23 % = 0.55 %	4.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.25 % = -0.04 %	-2.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.21 %	-26.21 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.26 % minus 1.23 % = 0.03 %	0.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.25 % = 0.16 %	8.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.13 % = 0.24 %	30.02 %
Sell Signals - 157 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.23 % = -0.09 %	-0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.25 % = -0.12 %	-5.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.13 % = -0.23 %	-28.71 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 1.23 % = -0.62 %	-5.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.25 % = -0.38 %	-19.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.13 % = -0.22 %	-27.95 %
Sell Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 1.23 % = 0.22 %	1.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.25 % = 0.15 %	7.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.13 % = 0.47 %	59.86 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 471 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.15 % minus 1.23 % = -0.08 %	-0.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.25 % = 0.07 %	3.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.13 % = 0.07 %	8.43 %
Sell Signals - 471 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.93 % minus 1.23 % = -0.31 %	-2.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.25 % = 0.04 %	1.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.01 %	-0.83 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 669 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.11 % minus 1.23 % = -0.12 %	-1.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.25 % = 0.09 %	4.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %	16.22 %
Sell Signals - 669 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.08 % minus 1.23 % = -0.15 %	-1.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.25 % = -0.02 %	-0.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.13 % = 0.02 %	2.05 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 288 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.66 % minus 1.23 % = 0.43 %	3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.25 % = 0.25 %	12.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.13 % = 0.18 %	23.31 %
Sell Signals - 289 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.66 % minus 1.23 % = 0.43 %	3.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.25 % = 0.20 %	9.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.13 % = 0.02 %	2.49 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.58 % minus 1.23 % = 0.35 %	2.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.25 % = -0.08 %	-4.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.04 %	-5.55 %
Sell Signals - 170 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 1.23 % = -0.07 %	-0.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.25 % = -0.40 %	-20.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.17 %	-21.71 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.12 % minus 1.23 % = -0.11 %	-0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 0.25 % = -0.64 %	-32.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.02 % minus 0.13 % = -1.15 %	-145.52 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.82 % minus 1.23 % = 1.59 %	13.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.25 % = 0.33 %	16.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %	5.81 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.03 % minus 1.23 % = -0.20 %	-1.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.25 % = 0.23 %	11.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.13 % = 0.25 %	32.16 %
Sell Signals - 163 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.42 % minus 1.23 % = 0.19 %	1.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.25 % = -0.11 %	-5.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.20 %	-25.08 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.51 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.31 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.58 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.28 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.23 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.

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