Moving Average Indicators for FTR

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

FTR: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Frontier Communications Corp:

Different ways of averaging are tested on FTR stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to FTR stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Frontier Communications Corp
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Texas Instruments Incorporated and Convergys Corporation.

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Amgen, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Coach, Inc., Fluor Corporation (NEW), and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.85 % minus 0.45 % = 1.40 %11.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %4.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.05 % = 0.17 %21.00 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 0.45 % = 0.69 %5.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %11.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.05 % = -0.34 %-43.22 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 136 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.45 % = 0.00 %0.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %5.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.05 % = 0.12 %15.68 %
Sell Signals - 136 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.45 % = 0.38 %3.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.09 % = 0.01 %0.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.05 % = -0.02 %-2.46 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.45 % = -0.75 %-6.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.09 % = -0.52 %-26.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.05 % = -0.32 %-40.82 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.45 % = -0.30 %-2.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.16 %-8.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.05 % = 0.00 %-0.47 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 507 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.45 % = -0.03 %-0.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-1.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.05 % = -0.06 %-7.30 %
Sell Signals - 508 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.45 % = 0.22 %1.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %4.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.05 % = 0.08 %9.58 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 700 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.45 % = 0.05 %0.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-4.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.05 % = -0.13 %-16.29 %
Sell Signals - 699 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.45 % = 0.03 %0.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-2.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.05 % = -0.03 %-3.19 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 297 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.45 % = -0.17 %-1.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.09 % = -0.30 %-15.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.05 % = -0.34 %-43.28 %
Sell Signals - 297 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.45 % = 0.04 %0.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %11.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.05 % = 0.12 %15.22 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 171 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 0.45 % = 0.72 %6.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-3.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.05 % = -0.13 %-16.82 %
Sell Signals - 171 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 0.45 % = 0.83 %7.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.09 % = 0.33 %16.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.05 % = 0.35 %44.49 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.45 % = -0.23 %-1.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.74 % minus 0.09 % = -0.83 %-42.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.85 % minus 0.05 % = -0.90 %-114.17 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.08 % minus 0.45 % = 1.63 %13.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.09 % = 0.64 %32.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.05 % = 0.16 %19.82 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 159 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.45 % = -0.55 %-4.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-1.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.05 % = -0.01 %-0.64 %
Sell Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.26 % minus 0.45 % = 0.81 %6.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %0.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.05 % = -0.01 %-1.47 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.40 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.30 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.11 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.34 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.17 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.34 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for Frontier Communications Corp