GCI Averages

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From the Weekend Report 2/5/2010: GCI is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 48.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to GCI stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to GCI stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Moving Average Convergence of Gannett Co., Inc.

	Companies In the News
	Friday, February 05, 2010: We have news on Genzyme Corporation, ticker symbol GENZ. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Archer-Daniels-Midland and Pactiv Corporation. From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Wells Fargo & Company, Marathon Oil Corporation, Dell Inc., and Principal Financial Group, Inc..

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 0.73 % = 0.36 %	3.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.12 % = -0.19 %	-9.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.44 % minus 0.06 % = -0.50 %	-63.26 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 0.73 % = 0.10 %	0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.12 % = 0.20 %	10.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.06 % = 0.13 %	16.30 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.73 % = -0.30 %	-2.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.12 % = -0.07 %	-3.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.06 % = 0.07 %	9.41 %
Sell Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.03 % minus 0.73 % = 0.30 %	2.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.12 % = 0.06 %	3.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.06 % = 0.14 %	17.32 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.73 % = -0.54 %	-4.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.44 % minus 0.12 % = -0.57 %	-28.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.35 % minus 0.06 % = -0.41 %	-51.94 %
Sell Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.73 % = -0.66 %	-5.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.12 % = -0.16 %	-8.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.06 % = 0.00 %	0.03 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 612 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.73 % = -0.12 %	-1.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.12 % = 0.00 %	-0.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.03 %	-3.30 %
Sell Signals - 613 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.72 % minus 0.73 % = -0.02 %	-0.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.12 % = 0.04 %	1.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.06 % = -0.01 %	-1.00 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 825 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.73 % = -0.17 %	-1.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.12 % = -0.10 %	-5.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.06 % = -0.08 %	-9.69 %
Sell Signals - 824 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.73 % = -0.10 %	-0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.12 % = -0.02 %	-1.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.06 % = 0.03 %	3.74 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 374 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.73 % = -0.08 %	-0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.04 %	-1.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.06 % = -0.08 %	-10.18 %
Sell Signals - 373 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.73 % = -0.12 %	-1.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.12 % = 0.10 %	5.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %	12.18 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 263 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.73 % = -0.68 %	-5.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.12 % = -0.24 %	-12.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.06 % = -0.20 %	-25.82 %
Sell Signals - 263 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.73 % = -0.44 %	-3.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.02 %	-0.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.06 % = 0.15 %	19.08 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.87 % minus 0.73 % = 1.14 %	9.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.12 % = 0.32 %	16.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.06 % = 0.30 %	38.17 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.73 % = -0.45 %	-3.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.12 % = -0.40 %	-20.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.06 % = -0.08 %	-9.60 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.73 % = 0.04 %	0.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.12 % = 0.06 %	3.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %	12.08 %
Sell Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.30 % minus 0.73 % = 0.56 %	4.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %	6.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.06 % = 0.25 %	31.69 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.14 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.66 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.32 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.30 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.08 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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