GCI Averages

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: In relation to the 200 bar moving average, GCI appears to be in phase 2 of the long term oscillation cycle. While still 54.00 % above the line, the gap has closed some since the end of last week.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to GCI stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to GCI stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Gannett Co., Inc.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Thursday, March 11, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Zimmer Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol ZMH. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and The New York Times Company (NYT)

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 0.72 % = 0.36 %	3.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.12 % = -0.20 %	-10.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.44 % minus 0.06 % = -0.50 %	-63.98 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 0.72 % = 0.12 %	1.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.12 % = 0.20 %	9.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.06 % = 0.13 %	16.32 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.72 % = -0.28 %	-2.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.12 % = -0.06 %	-3.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.06 % = 0.08 %	9.83 %
Sell Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.03 % minus 0.72 % = 0.31 %	2.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.12 % = 0.05 %	2.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.06 % = 0.11 %	14.30 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.72 % = -0.53 %	-4.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.45 % minus 0.12 % = -0.57 %	-29.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.35 % minus 0.06 % = -0.41 %	-52.22 %
Sell Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.72 % = -0.57 %	-4.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.12 % = -0.10 %	-5.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.06 % = 0.07 %	8.33 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 614 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 0.72 % = -0.06 %	-0.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.12 % = 0.01 %	0.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.06 % = -0.02 %	-2.30 %
Sell Signals - 615 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.78 % minus 0.72 % = 0.06 %	0.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.12 % = 0.06 %	2.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.06 % = 0.00 %	0.04 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 826 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.72 % = -0.20 %	-1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.12 % = -0.13 %	-6.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.06 % = -0.10 %	-12.26 %
Sell Signals - 826 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.72 % = -0.13 %	-1.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.04 %	-2.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.06 % = 0.01 %	1.10 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 376 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 0.72 % = -0.08 %	-0.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.12 % = -0.05 %	-2.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.06 % = -0.10 %	-12.41 %
Sell Signals - 375 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.72 % = -0.11 %	-0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.12 % = 0.09 %	4.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.06 % = 0.08 %	10.32 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.72 % = -0.70 %	-5.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.12 % = -0.25 %	-12.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.06 % = -0.21 %	-26.98 %
Sell Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.72 % = -0.45 %	-3.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.03 %	-1.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.06 % = 0.15 %	18.75 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.86 % minus 0.72 % = 1.13 %	9.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.12 % = 0.30 %	15.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.06 % = 0.29 %	36.39 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.72 % = -0.35 %	-2.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.24 % minus 0.12 % = -0.36 %	-18.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.03 %	-3.76 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.74 % minus 0.72 % = 0.02 %	0.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.12 % = 0.06 %	2.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %	12.53 %
Sell Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 0.72 % = 0.44 %	3.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.11 %	5.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.06 % = 0.23 %	29.66 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.13 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.57 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.30 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.36 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.29 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.03 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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