Moving Average Analysis of GE

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, GE is now 16.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

GE:  Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for General Electric:

Different ways of averaging are tested on GE stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to GE stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of General Electric
Companies In the News
Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and TECO Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from MicroSoft, General Electric, Sempra Energy, and Walmart.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.95 % = -0.90 %-7.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.19 % = 0.50 %25.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.09 % = 0.43 %54.04 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.95 % = -0.38 %-3.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.37 % minus 0.19 % = -0.56 %-28.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.09 % = -0.28 %-35.53 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 216 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.95 % = 0.17 %1.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.19 % = 0.07 %3.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.68 %
Sell Signals - 216 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.95 % = -0.11 %-0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.19 % = -0.23 %-11.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.17 %-21.68 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.95 % = -0.49 %-4.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.09 %-4.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-7.85 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.61 % minus 0.95 % = -1.56 %-13.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.52 % minus 0.19 % = -0.71 %-35.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.09 % = -0.26 %-33.54 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 729 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.95 % = 0.06 %0.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.19 % = -0.01 %-0.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.23 %
Sell Signals - 729 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.95 % = 0.06 %0.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.19 % = 0.00 %-0.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %2.55 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 1028 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.95 % = 0.01 %0.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.19 % = 0.07 %3.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.10 %12.26 %
Sell Signals - 1028 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 0.95 % = 0.03 %0.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %1.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %2.75 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 428 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.95 % = -0.09 %-0.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.19 % = -0.10 %-5.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %-0.51 %
Sell Signals - 426 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 0.95 % = 0.02 %0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.19 % = -0.06 %-3.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.08 %-9.57 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 297 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.95 % = 0.18 %1.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.19 % = 0.22 %11.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %15.90 %
Sell Signals - 297 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 0.95 % = 0.34 %2.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.19 % = 0.42 %21.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.09 % = 0.28 %36.02 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.95 % = 0.11 %0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.19 % = 0.30 %15.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %16.55 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.95 % = -0.87 %-7.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.19 % = -0.46 %-23.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-4.87 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 272 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 0.95 % = 0.20 %1.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.19 % = 0.21 %10.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %10.64 %
Sell Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.95 % = -0.41 %-3.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.19 % = -0.10 %-5.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-2.48 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.20 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -1.56 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.50 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.71 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.43 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for General Electric Stock Prices - GE