Moving Average Analysis of GENZ

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Genzyme Corporation
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Genzyme Corporation:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to GENZ stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to GENZ stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




GENZ: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.21 % minus 1.33 % = 1.88 %15.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.29 % = 0.84 %42.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 0.16 % = 0.91 %115.86 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.68 % minus 1.33 % = 1.35 %11.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.29 % = 0.03 %1.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.16 % = 0.14 %18.32 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.88 % minus 1.33 % = 0.55 %4.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.29 % = 0.47 %23.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.16 % = 0.44 %55.67 %
Sell Signals - 145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 1.33 % = -0.21 %-1.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.29 % = -0.03 %-1.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.16 % = 0.01 %0.67 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.71 % minus 1.33 % = 1.38 %11.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.29 % = 0.22 %11.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.16 % = 0.07 %8.82 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.70 % minus 1.33 % = 0.37 %3.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.29 % = -0.49 %-25.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.16 % = -0.47 %-59.94 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 502 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 1.33 % = -0.37 %-3.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.29 % = -0.25 %-12.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.16 % = -0.11 %-14.38 %
Sell Signals - 503 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 1.33 % = 0.03 %0.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.29 % = 0.11 %5.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.16 % = 0.14 %18.30 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 685 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 1.33 % = -0.05 %-0.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.29 % = 0.02 %1.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.16 % = 0.11 %13.93 %
Sell Signals - 684 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 1.33 % = -0.25 %-2.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.29 % = -0.08 %-4.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.16 % = 0.01 %0.96 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 277 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 1.33 % = -0.18 %-1.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.29 % = -0.05 %-2.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-6.86 %
Sell Signals - 277 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.17 % minus 1.33 % = 0.84 %7.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.09 % minus 0.29 % = 0.80 %40.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.16 % = 0.87 %110.12 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 181 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.83 % minus 1.33 % = 1.50 %12.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.29 % = 0.06 %3.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.16 % = -0.04 %-5.25 %
Sell Signals - 181 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.00 % minus 1.33 % = 2.67 %22.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 0.29 % = 0.99 %50.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 0.16 % = 1.05 %133.69 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.32 % minus 1.33 % = 2.99 %25.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.62 % minus 0.29 % = 1.33 %67.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.16 % = 1.16 %147.95 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.18 % minus 1.33 % = 0.85 %7.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.47 % minus 0.29 % = -0.76 %-38.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.16 % = -0.23 %-29.37 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 168 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.72 % minus 1.33 % = 1.39 %11.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.29 % = 0.65 %32.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.16 % = 0.20 %25.34 %
Sell Signals - 140 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.63 % minus 1.33 % = 0.30 %2.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.29 % = 0.10 %5.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.16 % = 0.04 %5.12 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.99 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.25 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.33 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.76 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.16 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.47 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Genzyme Corporation Stock Prices - GENZ