Moving Average Analysis of GENZ

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From the Weekend Report 12/19/2008: Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is -6.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Genzyme Corporation
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to GENZ stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to GENZ stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




GENZ: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Intel, ticker symbol INTC. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Praxair, Inc. and Allegheny Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (12/31/2008 ) Favorable events happened at Fluor Corporation (NEW) and National City Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Office Depot, Inc. and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.21 % minus 1.45 % = 1.75 %14.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.32 % = 0.81 %41.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 0.18 % = 0.90 %113.88 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.68 % minus 1.45 % = 1.23 %10.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.32 % = 0.00 %-0.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.18 % = 0.13 %16.34 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 137 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.09 % minus 1.45 % = 0.64 %5.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.32 % = 0.63 %32.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.18 % = 0.56 %71.06 %
Sell Signals - 137 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 1.45 % = -0.25 %-2.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.32 % = 0.01 %0.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.18 % = 0.07 %9.50 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.18 % minus 1.45 % = 1.73 %14.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.32 % = 0.38 %19.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.18 % = 0.05 %6.07 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.16 % minus 1.45 % = 0.71 %5.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.32 % = -0.46 %-23.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.28 % minus 0.18 % = -0.46 %-58.07 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 468 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 1.45 % = -0.50 %-4.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.32 % = -0.24 %-12.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.18 % = -0.10 %-12.15 %
Sell Signals - 468 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 1.45 % = -0.06 %-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.32 % = 0.12 %6.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.18 % = 0.14 %18.28 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 646 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 1.45 % = -0.10 %-0.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.32 % = 0.01 %0.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.18 % = 0.10 %12.31 %
Sell Signals - 645 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 1.45 % = -0.32 %-2.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.32 % = -0.10 %-5.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %0.32 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 260 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 1.45 % = -0.08 %-0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.32 % = 0.01 %0.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-4.98 %
Sell Signals - 260 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.53 % minus 1.45 % = 1.07 %9.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 0.32 % = 0.98 %49.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.18 % = 0.98 %124.64 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 173 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.62 % minus 1.45 % = 1.17 %9.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.32 % = -0.08 %-4.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.18 % = -0.12 %-15.69 %
Sell Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.93 % minus 1.45 % = 2.48 %21.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 0.32 % = 0.97 %49.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 0.18 % = 1.10 %139.34 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.32 % minus 1.45 % = 2.87 %24.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.62 % minus 0.32 % = 1.31 %66.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.18 % = 1.15 %145.97 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.91 % minus 1.45 % = 1.46 %12.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.32 % = -0.72 %-36.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.18 % = -0.18 %-23.30 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 159 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.99 % minus 1.45 % = 1.54 %13.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.32 % = 0.72 %36.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.18 % = 0.24 %30.40 %
Sell Signals - 127 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.62 % minus 1.45 % = 0.16 %1.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.32 % = 0.07 %3.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %1.21 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.87 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.32 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.31 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.72 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.15 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Genzyme Corporation Stock Prices - GENZ