Moving Average Analysis of GGP

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From the Weekend Report 10/2/2009: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with GGP 166.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

GGP: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to GGP stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to GGP stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Electronic Data Systems and American Tower Corporation. From the News Archive: (3/19/2010 ) Bad news came from AT and T, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., TECO Energy, Inc., and MicroSoft.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.34 % minus 1.78 % = 1.55 %	13.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	2.07 % minus 0.37 % = 1.70 %	86.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.21 % minus 0.19 % = 1.02 %	129.83 %
Sell Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	7.74 % minus 1.78 % = 5.96 %	50.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.37 % = 0.25 %	12.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.19 % = 0.11 %	14.58 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 101 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.03 % minus 1.78 % = -0.75 %	-6.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.37 % = -0.30 %	-15.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %	-4.63 %
Sell Signals - 103 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.48 % minus 1.78 % = -0.30 %	-2.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.37 % = -0.30 %	-15.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.19 % = -0.22 %	-28.46 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 1.78 % = -0.79 %	-6.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.44 % minus 0.37 % = -0.81 %	-41.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.19 % = -0.60 %	-76.46 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.16 % minus 1.78 % = 1.37 %	11.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.27 % minus 0.37 % = -0.64 %	-32.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.24 %	-30.04 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 336 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.53 % minus 1.78 % = -0.25 %	-2.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.37 % = -0.09 %	-4.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.09 %	-11.30 %
Sell Signals - 337 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.48 % minus 1.78 % = -0.31 %	-2.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.37 % = -0.38 %	-19.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.19 % = 0.07 %	8.85 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 470 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.48 % minus 1.78 % = -0.30 %	-2.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.37 % = -0.12 %	-6.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %	3.80 %
Sell Signals - 469 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.51 % minus 1.78 % = -0.27 %	-2.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.37 % = -0.12 %	-6.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.19 % = -0.07 %	-8.48 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 168 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.29 % minus 1.78 % = -0.50 %	-4.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.37 % = 0.07 %	3.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.19 % = 0.41 %	51.92 %
Sell Signals - 167 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 1.78 % = -1.13 %	-9.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.37 % = -0.35 %	-18.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.34 %	-42.56 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 122 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.08 % minus 1.78 % = 1.30 %	10.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.37 % = 0.14 %	7.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.19 % = 0.13 %	15.98 %
Sell Signals - 122 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.06 % minus 1.78 % = 1.27 %	10.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.37 % = -0.08 %	-4.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.14 %	-17.84 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	6.38 % minus 1.78 % = 4.60 %	38.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.55 % minus 0.37 % = -0.92 %	-46.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.19 % = -0.50 %	-63.35 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.31 % minus 1.78 % = 1.53 %	12.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.86 % minus 0.37 % = 0.49 %	24.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.19 % = 0.62 %	78.66 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 144 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.76 % minus 1.78 % = 0.98 %	8.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.37 % = -0.05 %	-2.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.19 % = 0.05 %	6.87 %
Sell Signals - 96 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 1.78 % = -1.20 %	-10.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 0.37 % = -0.76 %	-38.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.19 % = 0.12 %	15.40 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 4.60 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -1.20 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.70 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.76 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.02 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.34 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

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