Moving Average Analysis of HCBK

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: HCBK may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Hudson City Bancorp, Inc.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Hudson City Bancorp, Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on HCBK stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to HCBK stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Hudson City Bancorp, Inc.
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 1.31 % = -1.43 %-12.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.26 % = -0.10 %-5.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.41 % minus 0.13 % = -0.54 %-68.78 %
Sell Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.64 % minus 1.31 % = -3.95 %-33.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.53 % minus 0.26 % = -1.79 %-90.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 0.13 % = -0.64 %-81.12 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 79 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 1.31 % = 0.04 %0.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.26 % = 0.39 %19.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %16.07 %
Sell Signals - 78 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 1.31 % = -0.76 %-6.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.26 % = -0.21 %-10.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.13 % = -0.35 %-44.75 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.05 % minus 1.31 % = 0.74 %6.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.51 % minus 0.26 % = 1.25 %63.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.13 % = 0.44 %55.58 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.32 % minus 1.31 % = -1.63 %-13.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.26 % = -0.03 %-1.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.13 % = 0.12 %14.89 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 249 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 1.31 % = -0.18 %-1.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.26 % = -0.13 %-6.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.13 % = -0.13 %-16.64 %
Sell Signals - 248 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 1.31 % = -0.09 %-0.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.26 % = -0.05 %-2.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.06 %-7.27 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 367 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 1.31 % = -0.01 %-0.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.26 % = 0.03 %1.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %6.23 %
Sell Signals - 366 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 1.31 % = 0.01 %0.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.26 % = 0.12 %6.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %6.75 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 1.31 % = -0.70 %-5.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.26 % = -0.47 %-23.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.13 % = -0.37 %-47.16 %
Sell Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 1.31 % = -0.19 %-1.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.26 % = 0.03 %1.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.13 % = 0.14 %17.19 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 87 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 1.31 % = -0.60 %-5.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.35 % minus 0.26 % = -0.62 %-31.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.13 % = -0.47 %-59.24 %
Sell Signals - 87 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.45 % minus 1.31 % = 0.14 %1.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.26 % = -0.07 %-3.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.07 %-8.98 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 1.31 % = -1.54 %-13.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.60 % minus 0.26 % = -0.86 %-43.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.13 % = -0.53 %-67.31 %
Sell Signals - 6 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.16 % minus 1.31 % = -2.47 %-20.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.26 % = 0.27 %13.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.13 % = 0.60 %76.35 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 93 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 1.31 % = -0.16 %-1.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.26 % = 0.15 %7.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %16.03 %
Sell Signals - 57 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 1.31 % = -0.07 %-0.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.26 % = 0.12 %6.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.13 % = 0.07 %9.16 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.74 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -3.95 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.25 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.79 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.44 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.64 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for Hudson City Bancorp, Inc.