Moving Average Analysis of HD

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with HD 18.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on HD stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to HD stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Thursday, March 11, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Zimmer Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol ZMH. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and The New York Times Company (NYT)

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.37 % minus 1.51 % = 0.86 %	7.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.31 % = 0.18 %	9.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.49 % minus 0.15 % = -0.65 %	-82.31 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.11 % minus 1.51 % = -1.62 %	-13.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.31 % = -0.41 %	-20.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.15 % = -0.35 %	-43.86 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.84 % minus 1.51 % = 0.33 %	2.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 0.31 % = 0.36 %	18.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.15 % = 0.28 %	35.47 %
Sell Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.78 % minus 1.51 % = -0.73 %	-6.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.32 % minus 0.31 % = -0.63 %	-31.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.15 % = -0.34 %	-43.59 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 1.51 % = -0.76 %	-6.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.31 % = 0.28 %	14.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.15 % = 0.15 %	19.47 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 1.51 % = -1.55 %	-13.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.31 % = -0.59 %	-29.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.15 % = -0.41 %	-52.65 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 577 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.75 % minus 1.51 % = 0.24 %	2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.31 % = 0.01 %	0.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.15 % = 0.01 %	1.80 %
Sell Signals - 579 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.81 % minus 1.51 % = 0.30 %	2.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.31 % = -0.03 %	-1.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.01 %	-1.75 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 826 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.50 % minus 1.51 % = -0.01 %	-0.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.31 % = -0.10 %	-5.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.15 % = -0.06 %	-7.42 %
Sell Signals - 826 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.44 % minus 1.51 % = -0.07 %	-0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.31 % = -0.07 %	-3.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.15 % = -0.03 %	-4.04 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 347 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.68 % minus 1.51 % = 0.17 %	1.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.31 % = 0.25 %	12.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.15 % = 0.35 %	44.77 %
Sell Signals - 347 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.67 % minus 1.51 % = 0.15 %	1.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.31 % = -0.11 %	-5.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.15 % = -0.19 %	-24.08 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 227 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 1.51 % = -0.82 %	-6.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.31 % = -0.04 %	-2.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.15 % = 0.18 %	23.32 %
Sell Signals - 227 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.95 % minus 1.51 % = -0.56 %	-4.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.31 % = 0.05 %	2.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.15 % = 0.15 %	19.28 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.70 % minus 1.51 % = -2.21 %	-18.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.50 % minus 0.31 % = -1.80 %	-91.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.33 % minus 0.15 % = -0.48 %	-60.92 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.44 % minus 1.51 % = -0.08 %	-0.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 0.31 % = 0.90 %	45.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.15 % = 0.20 %	25.07 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 228 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.81 % minus 1.51 % = 0.30 %	2.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.31 % = 0.21 %	10.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.15 % = 0.05 %	6.17 %
Sell Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.51 % = -0.37 %	-3.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.31 % = 0.05 %	2.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.15 % = 0.06 %	7.59 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.86 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.62 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.63 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.35 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.41 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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