Moving Average Analysis of HD

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Home Depot
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on HD stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to HD stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




HD: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.49 % minus 1.50 % = 1.00 %8.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.30 % = 0.27 %13.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.15 % = -0.58 %-74.19 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 1.50 % = -1.26 %-10.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.30 % = -0.05 %-2.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.15 % = 0.11 %13.50 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 181 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.08 % minus 1.50 % = 0.59 %4.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.30 % = 0.44 %22.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.15 % = 0.29 %37.23 %
Sell Signals - 181 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 1.50 % = -0.60 %-5.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.30 % = -0.59 %-30.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.15 % = -0.37 %-47.12 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 1.50 % = -0.80 %-6.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.30 % = 0.24 %12.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.15 % = 0.11 %13.38 %
Sell Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 1.50 % = -1.60 %-13.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.35 % minus 0.30 % = -0.65 %-33.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.15 % = -0.49 %-62.45 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 572 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.71 % minus 1.50 % = 0.21 %1.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.30 % = 0.00 %0.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.15 % = 0.01 %1.76 %
Sell Signals - 572 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.76 % minus 1.50 % = 0.27 %2.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.30 % = -0.05 %-2.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-2.21 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 806 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.45 % minus 1.50 % = -0.04 %-0.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.30 % = -0.09 %-4.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-2.66 %
Sell Signals - 806 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 1.50 % = -0.10 %-0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.30 % = -0.07 %-3.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %-0.08 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 346 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 1.50 % = -0.03 %-0.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.30 % = 0.11 %5.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.15 % = 0.19 %24.03 %
Sell Signals - 345 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.71 % minus 1.50 % = 0.22 %1.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.30 % = 0.07 %3.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.15 % = -0.05 %-6.34 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 1.50 % = -0.94 %-7.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.30 % = -0.04 %-2.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.15 % = 0.21 %26.90 %
Sell Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 1.50 % = -0.64 %-5.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.30 % = 0.14 %6.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.15 % = 0.24 %30.76 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.85 % minus 1.50 % = -2.34 %-19.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.09 % minus 0.30 % = -1.40 %-70.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.15 % = -0.40 %-51.04 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.44 % minus 1.50 % = -0.06 %-0.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 0.30 % = 0.90 %45.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.15 % = 0.21 %26.21 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.94 % minus 1.50 % = 0.45 %3.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.30 % = 0.19 %9.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.15 % = 0.04 %5.59 %
Sell Signals - 163 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 1.50 % = -0.71 %-6.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.30 % = -0.04 %-1.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.15 % = 0.04 %5.05 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.00 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.60 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.44 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.65 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.29 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.49 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for HD Stock Prices