Moving Average Analysis of HGSI

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

HGSI: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on HGSI stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to HGSI stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.93 % minus 3.38 % = -1.45 %	-12.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.86 % minus 0.62 % = -1.48 %	-75.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.50 % minus 0.30 % = -0.81 %	-102.32 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	12.14 % minus 3.38 % = 8.76 %	74.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.56 % minus 0.62 % = -1.18 %	-59.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.48 % minus 0.30 % = -0.78 %	-99.06 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	6.43 % minus 3.38 % = 3.05 %	25.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 0.62 % = 0.47 %	24.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 0.30 % = 0.60 %	75.82 %
Sell Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	6.75 % minus 3.38 % = 3.37 %	28.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.73 % minus 0.62 % = 1.11 %	56.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 0.30 % = 0.69 %	87.47 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.30 % minus 3.38 % = -1.08 %	-9.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.11 % minus 0.62 % = 0.49 %	25.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.30 % = -0.58 %	-73.67 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 3.38 % = -2.94 %	-24.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.47 % minus 0.62 % = -1.09 %	-55.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.30 % = -0.53 %	-66.73 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 426 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.93 % minus 3.38 % = -1.45 %	-12.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.62 % = -0.67 %	-33.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.30 % = -0.25 %	-32.30 %
Sell Signals - 426 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.72 % minus 3.38 % = -0.66 %	-5.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.62 % = -0.41 %	-20.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.30 % = -0.02 %	-2.50 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 531 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.95 % minus 3.38 % = -0.43 %	-3.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.62 % = -0.32 %	-16.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.30 % = -0.19 %	-23.88 %
Sell Signals - 531 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.48 % minus 3.38 % = -0.91 %	-7.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.62 % = -0.64 %	-32.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.30 % = -0.41 %	-51.48 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 226 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.11 % minus 3.38 % = -0.28 %	-2.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.46 % minus 0.62 % = 0.84 %	42.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.30 % = -0.20 %	-25.83 %
Sell Signals - 225 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.51 % minus 3.38 % = -0.87 %	-7.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 0.62 % = 0.22 %	11.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 0.30 % = 0.37 %	46.69 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 164 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.22 % minus 3.38 % = -0.17 %	-1.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.62 % = -0.68 %	-34.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.63 % minus 0.30 % = -0.93 %	-118.48 %
Sell Signals - 164 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.83 % minus 3.38 % = -0.55 %	-4.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 0.62 % = 0.20 %	10.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.30 % = 0.27 %	34.04 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.12 % minus 3.38 % = -0.26 %	-2.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.93 % minus 0.62 % = 1.31 %	66.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.30 % = 0.01 %	0.99 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 3.38 % = -2.38 %	-20.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.81 % minus 0.62 % = -1.43 %	-72.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.43 % minus 0.30 % = -0.74 %	-93.44 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 141 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.18 % minus 3.38 % = -0.20 %	-1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.62 % = -0.23 %	-11.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.30 % = 0.01 %	0.86 %
Sell Signals - 140 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.82 % minus 3.38 % = -1.56 %	-13.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.62 % = -0.81 %	-41.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.30 % = -0.58 %	-74.29 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 3.05 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.94 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.31 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.43 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.60 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.78 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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