Moving Average Indicators for HIG

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From the Weekend Report 8/20/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Hartford Financial Services
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to HIG stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to HIG stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




HIG: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Tuesday, September 07, 2010: We have news on Qiagen N.V., ticker symbol QGEN. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mattel, Inc. and SYSCO Corporation.

From the News Archive: (9/7/2010 ) Bad news came from Expeditors International of Washington, Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., Varian Medical Systems, Inc., and Apartment Investment and Management Co..




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.87 % minus 1.17 % = -2.05 %-17.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.92 % minus 0.24 % = -1.16 %-59.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.13 % = -0.34 %-43.21 %
Sell Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.54 % minus 1.17 % = 2.36 %20.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.98 % minus 0.24 % = -1.22 %-61.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.08 % minus 0.13 % = -1.21 %-153.68 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 94 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.32 % minus 1.17 % = -2.49 %-21.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.24 % = -0.64 %-32.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.13 % = -0.38 %-48.83 %
Sell Signals - 93 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 1.17 % = -1.22 %-10.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.24 % = -0.12 %-6.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.13 % = -0.35 %-44.67 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.40 % minus 1.17 % = -2.58 %-21.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.11 % minus 0.24 % = -1.35 %-68.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.66 % minus 0.13 % = -0.79 %-99.93 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.57 % minus 1.17 % = -1.75 %-14.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.32 % minus 0.24 % = -1.56 %-79.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.92 % minus 0.13 % = -1.05 %-132.98 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 338 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 1.17 % = -1.76 %-14.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.24 % = -0.58 %-29.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.13 % = -0.25 %-32.04 %
Sell Signals - 338 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.41 % minus 1.17 % = -1.58 %-13.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.41 % minus 0.24 % = -0.65 %-33.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.13 % = -0.39 %-49.73 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 483 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 1.17 % = 0.17 %1.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.24 % = 0.23 %11.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.13 % = 0.26 %32.70 %
Sell Signals - 483 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 1.17 % = -0.12 %-1.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.24 % = 0.13 %6.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.13 % = 0.12 %15.29 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 156 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 1.17 % = -0.99 %-8.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.24 % = -0.15 %-7.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.13 % = -0.15 %-18.74 %
Sell Signals - 157 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 1.17 % = -1.89 %-16.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.24 % = -0.50 %-25.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.13 % = -0.37 %-46.95 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 114 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.42 % minus 1.17 % = -2.60 %-21.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.24 % = -0.33 %-16.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.13 % = -0.41 %-52.62 %
Sell Signals - 115 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.81 % minus 1.17 % = -2.99 %-25.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.24 % = 0.37 %18.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.13 % = 0.31 %38.77 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 1.17 % = -1.42 %-11.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.24 % = -0.12 %-6.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.13 % = -0.31 %-39.69 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.78 % minus 1.17 % = 2.61 %22.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.24 % = 0.44 %22.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.20 %-25.34 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 116 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 1.17 % = -0.04 %-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.24 % = 0.10 %5.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.20 %-25.42 %
Sell Signals - 109 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 1.17 % = -0.24 %-2.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.24 % = 0.29 %14.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.13 % = 0.36 %46.11 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.17 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -2.99 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.23 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -1.56 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.26 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -1.21 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for Hartford Financial Services