HOG Averages

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with HOG 21.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

HOG: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Harley-Davidson, Inc.:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Sliding Stops

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Risk-Volatility

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Sentiment

Seasonal Trends

Back to HOG Table of Contents

Different ways of averaging are tested on HOG stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for HOG.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Harley-Davidson, Inc.

	Companies In the News
	Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 1.73 % = -0.91 %	-7.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.48 % minus 0.33 % = -0.81 %	-41.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.62 % minus 0.16 % = -0.79 %	-100.27 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.02 % minus 1.73 % = 0.29 %	2.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.33 % = 0.24 %	12.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.16 % = 0.27 %	34.87 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.48 % minus 1.73 % = -0.25 %	-2.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.72 % minus 0.33 % = 0.39 %	19.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.16 % = 0.10 %	12.59 %
Sell Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 1.73 % = -0.98 %	-8.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.33 % = -0.19 %	-9.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.16 % = -0.17 %	-21.23 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 1.73 % = -1.56 %	-13.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.33 % = 0.24 %	11.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.16 % = 0.54 %	68.23 %
Sell Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 1.73 % = -0.93 %	-7.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.33 % = -0.12 %	-6.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.20 % minus 0.16 % = -0.36 %	-45.99 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 528 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.98 % minus 1.73 % = -0.75 %	-6.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.33 % = -0.08 %	-4.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.16 % = -0.15 %	-18.84 %
Sell Signals - 529 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.01 % minus 1.73 % = -0.72 %	-6.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.33 % = -0.23 %	-11.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.16 % = -0.13 %	-16.95 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 687 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.34 % minus 1.73 % = -0.39 %	-3.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.33 % = -0.10 %	-5.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.16 % = -0.02 %	-2.49 %
Sell Signals - 686 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.41 % minus 1.73 % = -0.33 %	-2.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.33 % = -0.03 %	-1.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.16 % = 0.09 %	11.37 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 279 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 1.73 % = -0.74 %	-6.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.33 % = 0.02 %	0.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.16 % = 0.07 %	9.37 %
Sell Signals - 279 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 1.73 % = -1.08 %	-9.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.33 % = -0.32 %	-16.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.16 % = -0.42 %	-53.71 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 1.73 % = -1.52 %	-12.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.33 % = -0.14 %	-7.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %	-5.84 %
Sell Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.18 % minus 1.73 % = -1.92 %	-16.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.33 % = -0.41 %	-20.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.23 % minus 0.16 % = -0.40 %	-50.18 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.00 % minus 1.73 % = -2.73 %	-23.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.76 % minus 0.33 % = -1.09 %	-55.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.16 % = -0.59 %	-74.67 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.92 % minus 1.73 % = 1.18 %	10.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.33 % = 0.29 %	14.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.16 % = -0.13 %	-16.29 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 201 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.47 % minus 1.73 % = -0.27 %	-2.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.33 % = -0.20 %	-10.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.16 % = -0.23 %	-29.36 %
Sell Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 1.73 % = -0.84 %	-7.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.33 % = -0.28 %	-13.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.16 % = -0.20 %	-25.99 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was -0.25 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.92 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.39 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.41 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.54 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.42 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Detailed Average Level Analysis for HOG :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.