Moving Average Analysis of HRB

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is -22.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week.

HRB: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for H&R Block, Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on HRB stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for HRB.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of H&R Block, Inc.
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.35 % minus 0.81 % = 2.54 %21.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 0.17 % = 1.05 %53.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.09 % = 0.76 %96.17 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 0.81 % = 0.45 %3.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.17 % = 0.76 %38.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %29.68 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.74 % minus 0.81 % = 0.93 %7.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.17 % = 0.46 %23.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.09 % = 0.29 %36.92 %
Sell Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.81 % = 0.32 %2.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.17 % = -0.01 %-0.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %18.92 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.81 % = -0.76 %-6.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.17 % = 0.25 %12.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.09 % = 0.49 %62.83 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.81 % = -1.12 %-9.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.17 % = -0.17 %-8.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %-15.49 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 562 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.81 % = 0.25 %2.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.17 % = 0.21 %10.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.09 % = 0.14 %17.24 %
Sell Signals - 561 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.81 % = 0.26 %2.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.17 % = 0.18 %9.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.12 %14.71 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 790 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.81 % = -0.31 %-2.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.17 % = 0.02 %1.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %5.99 %
Sell Signals - 789 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.81 % = -0.24 %-2.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.17 % = 0.00 %0.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %4.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 308 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.81 % = 0.25 %2.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.17 % = 0.14 %7.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %28.76 %
Sell Signals - 308 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 0.81 % = 0.47 %3.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.17 % = 0.22 %11.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.09 % = 0.18 %22.76 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.81 % = 0.17 %1.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.17 % = 0.15 %7.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %14.02 %
Sell Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.81 % = 0.19 %1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.17 % = 0.12 %6.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-1.96 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.81 % = -0.51 %-4.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.62 % minus 0.17 % = -0.79 %-40.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %29.14 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.86 % minus 0.81 % = -2.67 %-22.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.38 % minus 0.17 % = -1.55 %-78.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.94 % minus 0.09 % = -1.03 %-130.58 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.81 % = -0.37 %-3.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.17 % = -0.03 %-1.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-7.03 %
Sell Signals - 177 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.81 % = 0.51 %4.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.17 % = 0.15 %7.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.80 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.54 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.67 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.05 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.76 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.03 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Indicators for H&R Block, Inc.