Moving Average Indicators for IBM

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

IBM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on IBM stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to IBM stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




IBM: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.79 % = -0.53 %-4.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.15 % = -0.87 %-44.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.08 % = -0.50 %-63.78 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.79 % = -0.02 %-0.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.15 % = 0.22 %11.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.08 % = 0.45 %57.43 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 194 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.79 % = -0.23 %-1.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.15 % = 0.05 %2.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.01 %-0.83 %
Sell Signals - 194 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.79 % = 0.40 %3.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-0.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.08 % = -0.15 %-19.38 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.61 % minus 0.79 % = -2.40 %-20.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.83 % minus 0.15 % = -0.98 %-49.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.08 % = -0.20 %-25.48 %
Sell Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.79 % = -0.98 %-8.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.15 % = -0.53 %-26.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.28 % minus 0.08 % = -0.36 %-45.30 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 674 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.79 % = -0.07 %-0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.15 % = -0.08 %-4.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.06 %-7.12 %
Sell Signals - 674 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.79 % = 0.05 %0.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.15 % = 0.05 %2.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.08 % = 0.02 %2.89 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 924 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.79 % = 0.21 %1.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.15 % = 0.10 %5.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.04 %4.71 %
Sell Signals - 923 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.79 % = 0.08 %0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %4.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.08 % = 0.11 %14.40 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 365 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.79 % = 0.09 %0.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-1.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.04 %-4.76 %
Sell Signals - 366 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.79 % = -0.24 %-2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.15 % = -0.10 %-4.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.06 %-7.51 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 231 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.79 % = -0.12 %-1.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.15 % = 0.04 %1.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.08 % = 0.18 %22.56 %
Sell Signals - 231 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.79 % = -0.60 %-5.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.15 % = -0.45 %-22.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.08 % = -0.27 %-34.44 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.66 % minus 0.79 % = -2.45 %-20.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.15 % = -0.53 %-27.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.06 %-8.11 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.79 % = 0.45 %3.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.15 % = 0.37 %18.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %9.94 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 244 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.79 % = 0.04 %0.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.15 % = 0.05 %2.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.08 % = 0.04 %5.68 %
Sell Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.79 % = -0.18 %-1.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.15 % = -0.19 %-9.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.12 %-15.57 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.21 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -0.98 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.10 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -0.53 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.18 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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International Business Machines Moving Averages - IBM