Moving Average Indicators for IBM

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

Breaking News
Free Reports    AMZN | MMM | MSO | LEN | BAC | GWW | GT | HIG | HAR | GS | FLR
Look for another Symbol?
Can't find your Company?
 

From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

IBM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
Subscribe

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for International Business Machines:

Different ways of averaging are tested on IBM stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to IBM stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




IBM: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and Martha Stewart. Meanwhile, bad news came from Patterson Companies, Inc. and LSI Corporation.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

.
Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.81 % = -0.55 %-4.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.15 % = -0.88 %-44.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.08 % = -0.51 %-64.60 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.81 % = -0.01 %-0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.15 % = 0.25 %12.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.08 % = 0.51 %64.84 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 201 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.81 % = -0.14 %-1.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.15 % = 0.12 %6.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.08 % = 0.05 %6.28 %
Sell Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 0.81 % = 0.36 %3.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %-0.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.13 %-16.39 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.59 % minus 0.81 % = -2.40 %-20.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.80 % minus 0.15 % = -0.95 %-48.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.08 % = -0.16 %-20.16 %
Sell Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.81 % = -0.99 %-8.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.15 % = -0.55 %-27.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.08 % = -0.39 %-49.51 %
.
MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 692 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.81 % = -0.05 %-0.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.15 % = -0.07 %-3.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.05 %-6.35 %
Sell Signals - 692 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.81 % = 0.06 %0.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.15 % = 0.06 %3.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.50 %
.
MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 945 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.81 % = 0.20 %1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.15 % = 0.10 %4.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.29 %
Sell Signals - 944 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.81 % = 0.06 %0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %3.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.08 % = 0.10 %12.96 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 374 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.81 % = 0.10 %0.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %-0.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.02 %-2.97 %
Sell Signals - 375 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.81 % = -0.25 %-2.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.15 % = -0.11 %-5.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.08 % = -0.07 %-9.37 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 236 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.81 % = 0.03 %0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.15 % = 0.07 %3.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.08 % = 0.19 %24.54 %
Sell Signals - 237 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.81 % = -0.42 %-3.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.15 % = -0.42 %-21.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.08 % = -0.25 %-31.76 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.66 % minus 0.81 % = -2.47 %-20.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.15 % = -0.54 %-27.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.06 %-8.17 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.81 % = 0.43 %3.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.15 % = 0.36 %18.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %9.57 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 254 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.81 % = 0.03 %0.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.15 % = 0.03 %1.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.08 % = 0.04 %4.87 %
Sell Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.81 % = -0.14 %-1.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.17 %-8.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.12 %-14.93 %
.
The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.20 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -0.99 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.12 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.55 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.19 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.39 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for International Business Machines

Detailed Average Level Analysis for IBM :



Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2008 by Stock-Predictions.Com
This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Moving Average Indicators for International Business Machines