Moving Average Indicators for IBM

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

Breaking News
Free Reports    IDNX | GGP | CPN | JWN | AAPL | XOM | JNJ | ACS | CL | BXP | BRCM
Look for another Symbol?
Can't find your Company?
 

From the Weekend Report 2/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

IBM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
Subscribe

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for International Business Machines:

Different ways of averaging are tested on IBM stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to IBM stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




IBM: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

.
Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.82 % = -0.55 %-4.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.16 % = -0.87 %-44.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.08 % = -0.50 %-63.96 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.82 % = -0.05 %-0.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.16 % = 0.22 %11.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.08 % = 0.45 %57.77 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 199 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.82 % = -0.15 %-1.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.16 % = 0.09 %4.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.69 %
Sell Signals - 199 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 0.82 % = 0.40 %3.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.16 % = 0.03 %1.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %-13.29 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.62 % minus 0.82 % = -2.44 %-20.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.83 % minus 0.16 % = -0.99 %-50.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.08 % = -0.21 %-26.79 %
Sell Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.82 % = -0.99 %-8.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.16 % = -0.54 %-27.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.08 % = -0.39 %-48.98 %
.
MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 687 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.82 % = -0.07 %-0.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %-3.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.04 %-4.94 %
Sell Signals - 686 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.82 % = 0.04 %0.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.16 % = 0.06 %3.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.36 %
.
MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 937 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.82 % = 0.17 %1.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.16 % = 0.08 %4.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.08 % = 0.02 %2.77 %
Sell Signals - 937 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.82 % = 0.05 %0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.16 % = 0.08 %4.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.08 % = 0.11 %13.99 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 378 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.82 % = 0.13 %1.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.16 % = 0.01 %0.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.01 %-1.64 %
Sell Signals - 378 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.82 % = -0.18 %-1.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.16 % = -0.08 %-3.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.05 %-6.85 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.82 % = 0.03 %0.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.16 % = 0.08 %4.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.08 % = 0.21 %26.12 %
Sell Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.82 % = -0.44 %-3.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.16 % = -0.43 %-21.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.08 % = -0.25 %-31.69 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.66 % minus 0.82 % = -2.48 %-21.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.16 % = -0.54 %-27.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.07 %-8.28 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.82 % = 0.42 %3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.16 % = 0.36 %18.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.07 %8.97 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 255 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.82 % = 0.04 %0.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %1.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.74 %
Sell Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.82 % = -0.13 %-1.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.16 % = -0.15 %-7.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.09 %-11.44 %
.
The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.17 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -0.99 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.09 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.54 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.21 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.39 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for International Business Machines

Detailed Average Level Analysis for IBM :



Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2008 by Stock-Predictions.Com
This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

International Business Machines Moving Averages - IBM