Moving Average Indicators for IGT

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

IGT: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on IGT stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for IGT.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of International Game Technology

Companies In the News

Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Texas Instruments Incorporated and Convergys Corporation.

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Amgen, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Coach, Inc., Fluor Corporation (NEW), and Automatic Data Processing.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.51 % minus 1.71 % = -2.22 %	-18.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.33 % = 0.20 %	10.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 0.17 % = 0.98 %	124.18 %
Sell Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	6.40 % minus 1.71 % = 4.69 %	39.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	2.04 % minus 0.33 % = 1.71 %	86.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.17 % = 0.69 %	87.00 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 134 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.13 % minus 1.71 % = -0.58 %	-4.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.33 % = -0.01 %	-0.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.17 % = 0.04 %	4.97 %
Sell Signals - 134 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.37 % minus 1.71 % = -0.34 %	-2.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.33 % = -0.06 %	-3.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.09 %	-11.19 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 1.71 % = -1.49 %	-12.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.35 % minus 0.33 % = -0.69 %	-34.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.17 % = 0.08 %	9.78 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 1.71 % = -1.71 %	-14.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.20 % minus 0.33 % = -0.53 %	-26.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.26 %	-32.72 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 424 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.51 % minus 1.71 % = -0.20 %	-1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.33 % = 0.13 %	6.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.17 % = 0.10 %	12.08 %
Sell Signals - 423 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.57 % minus 1.71 % = -0.14 %	-1.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.33 % = 0.05 %	2.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.17 % = 0.00 %	0.23 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 633 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.68 % minus 1.71 % = -0.03 %	-0.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.33 % = 0.09 %	4.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.17 % = 0.10 %	13.31 %
Sell Signals - 633 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.59 % minus 1.71 % = -0.12 %	-1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.33 % = 0.03 %	1.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.17 % = 0.01 %	1.84 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 225 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 1.71 % = -1.00 %	-8.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.33 % = -0.37 %	-18.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.17 % = -0.17 %	-21.31 %
Sell Signals - 225 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 1.71 % = -1.14 %	-9.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.33 % = -0.26 %	-13.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.17 % = -0.21 %	-27.05 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 146 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.05 % minus 1.71 % = 1.34 %	11.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.33 % = 0.21 %	10.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.17 % = 0.20 %	26.02 %
Sell Signals - 146 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.64 % minus 1.71 % = 0.93 %	7.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.33 % = 0.24 %	12.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.17 % = 0.15 %	19.13 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 1.71 % = -2.13 %	-18.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.33 % = -0.26 %	-13.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.17 % = -0.19 %	-23.68 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 1.71 % = -0.94 %	-7.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.49 % minus 0.33 % = -0.82 %	-41.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 0.17 % = -0.56 %	-70.49 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.26 % minus 1.71 % = 0.55 %	4.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.33 % = 0.13 %	6.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.17 % = -0.14 %	-17.91 %
Sell Signals - 124 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 1.71 % = -1.28 %	-10.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.33 % = -0.37 %	-18.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.17 % = -0.31 %	-39.68 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.34 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.71 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.21 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.82 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.98 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.56 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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Moving Average Convergence for International Game Technology Stock Prices - IGT