INTC Averages

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: INTC is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 6.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Intel
General Market Conditions
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to INTC stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to INTC stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Intel
Companies In the News
Thursday, February 04, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation and Eastman Kodak.

From the News Archive: (2/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., PNC Financial Services, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Northrop Grumman Corporation.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 1.58 % = -0.77 %-6.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.31 % = 0.03 %1.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.16 % = -0.59 %-75.21 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 1.58 % = -0.63 %-5.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.31 % = -0.05 %-2.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.16 % = -0.32 %-40.17 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 161 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 1.58 % = -0.61 %-5.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.31 % = -0.28 %-14.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.16 % = -0.12 %-15.10 %
Sell Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 1.58 % = -0.65 %-5.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.31 % = -0.68 %-34.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.35 % minus 0.16 % = -0.51 %-64.79 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 1.58 % = -1.14 %-9.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.31 % = -0.17 %-8.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.16 % = -0.22 %-27.52 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.89 % minus 1.58 % = 1.31 %11.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.31 % = 0.68 %34.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.16 % = 0.58 %73.56 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 566 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 1.58 % = -0.24 %-2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.31 % = -0.16 %-8.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.16 % = -0.14 %-17.37 %
Sell Signals - 567 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.72 % minus 1.58 % = 0.14 %1.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.31 % = 0.13 %6.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.16 % = 0.09 %10.85 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 753 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.44 % minus 1.58 % = -0.14 %-1.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.31 % = 0.07 %3.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.16 % = -0.04 %-5.02 %
Sell Signals - 752 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 1.58 % = -0.52 %-4.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.31 % = -0.11 %-5.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.16 % = -0.07 %-8.42 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 290 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 1.58 % = -0.33 %-2.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.31 % = -0.08 %-3.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.16 % = 0.08 %10.47 %
Sell Signals - 290 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 1.58 % = -0.62 %-5.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.31 % = -0.35 %-17.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.16 % = -0.32 %-40.41 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 193 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.78 % minus 1.58 % = 0.20 %1.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.31 % = 0.11 %5.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.16 % = 0.10 %12.32 %
Sell Signals - 193 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 1.58 % = -0.12 %-1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.31 % = -0.16 %-8.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.16 % = -0.16 %-20.39 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 1.58 % = -1.30 %-11.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.31 % = -0.51 %-26.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.16 % = -0.04 %-5.53 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.14 % minus 1.58 % = 0.56 %4.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.31 % = 0.84 %42.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.16 % = 0.79 %100.82 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 204 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 1.58 % = -0.39 %-3.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.31 % = 0.00 %0.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.16 % = -0.01 %-1.03 %
Sell Signals - 189 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 1.58 % = -0.64 %-5.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.31 % = -0.24 %-12.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.16 % = -0.11 %-13.55 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.20 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -0.65 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.11 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.68 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.10 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.51 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for Intel