IR Averages

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

IR: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to IR stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for IR.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




IR: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Electronic Data Systems and American Tower Corporation.

From the News Archive: (3/19/2010 ) Bad news came from AT and T, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., TECO Energy, Inc., and MicroSoft.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.61 % minus 1.19 % = 1.41 %11.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.23 % = 0.27 %13.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.12 % = 0.11 %14.08 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 1.19 % = 0.10 %0.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.23 % = -0.53 %-26.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.21 %-26.48 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 170 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 1.19 % = -0.39 %-3.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.23 % = -0.22 %-10.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.12 % = -0.16 %-20.83 %
Sell Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.00 % minus 1.19 % = 0.81 %6.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.23 % = 0.50 %25.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.12 % = 0.10 %12.22 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.35 % minus 1.19 % = 1.16 %9.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.23 % = 0.41 %20.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.12 % = 0.40 %51.07 %
Sell Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 1.19 % = -0.18 %-1.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.23 % = 0.06 %3.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.12 % = 0.02 %3.12 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 565 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 1.19 % = -0.18 %-1.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.23 % = 0.07 %3.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.12 % = 0.01 %1.69 %
Sell Signals - 565 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 1.19 % = -0.17 %-1.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.23 % = 0.00 %0.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.12 % = -0.02 %-2.27 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 794 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 1.19 % = 0.03 %0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.23 % = 0.12 %6.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.12 % = 0.11 %14.49 %
Sell Signals - 793 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 1.19 % = -0.04 %-0.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.23 % = 0.07 %3.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.12 % = 0.00 %-0.22 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 328 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 1.19 % = 0.20 %1.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.23 % = 0.16 %7.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.12 % = 0.10 %12.59 %
Sell Signals - 329 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 1.19 % = -0.23 %-1.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.23 % = 0.09 %4.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.12 % = -0.07 %-9.09 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.68 % minus 1.19 % = 0.49 %4.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.23 % = 0.34 %17.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.12 % = 0.31 %39.30 %
Sell Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 1.19 % = -0.04 %-0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.23 % = -0.05 %-2.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.12 % = -0.17 %-22.06 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.59 % minus 1.19 % = 1.40 %11.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 0.23 % = 1.02 %51.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.12 % = 0.74 %93.53 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 1.19 % = -0.76 %-6.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.23 % = -0.90 %-45.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.12 % = -0.42 %-53.57 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 1.19 % = -0.02 %-0.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.23 % = 0.03 %1.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.01 %-1.43 %
Sell Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.25 % minus 1.19 % = 1.06 %8.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.23 % = -0.26 %-13.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.12 % = -0.14 %-18.25 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.41 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.76 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.02 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.90 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.74 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.42 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Convergence for Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited Stock Prices - IR