ITW Averages

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: ITW is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 7.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

ITW: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Illinois Tool Works Inc.:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ITW stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to ITW stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Illinois Tool Works Inc.
Companies In the News
Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and Martha Stewart. Meanwhile, bad news came from Patterson Companies, Inc. and LSI Corporation.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.87 % minus 0.99 % = 0.89 %7.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.20 % = -0.25 %-12.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.10 % = 0.08 %10.21 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.56 % minus 0.99 % = 0.57 %4.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.20 % = -0.19 %-9.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.10 % = 0.10 %12.56 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 159 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.99 % = 0.22 %1.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.20 % = -0.05 %-2.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %-6.75 %
Sell Signals - 159 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.99 % = -0.37 %-3.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.20 % = -0.28 %-14.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.16 %-20.42 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 40 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.59 % minus 0.99 % = 0.60 %5.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.20 % = -0.23 %-11.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.06 %-7.15 %
Sell Signals - 40 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.99 % = -0.15 %-1.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.20 % = -0.32 %-16.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.10 % = -0.33 %-41.30 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 552 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.99 % = 0.22 %1.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.20 % = -0.10 %-4.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.11 %-14.15 %
Sell Signals - 553 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.26 % minus 0.99 % = 0.27 %2.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.20 % = -0.01 %-0.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.03 %4.15 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 732 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.99 % = -0.09 %-0.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %1.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %2.93 %
Sell Signals - 731 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.99 % = -0.03 %-0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.20 % = 0.00 %0.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %-3.20 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 309 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.99 % = -0.07 %-0.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.20 % = -0.01 %-0.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %2.17 %
Sell Signals - 309 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.99 % = 0.18 %1.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %1.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %-3.33 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.99 % = 0.07 %0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.20 % = 0.08 %3.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.02 %-2.84 %
Sell Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 0.99 % = 0.41 %3.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.20 % = 0.20 %10.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %18.19 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.88 % minus 0.99 % = 0.90 %7.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %1.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.10 % = 0.06 %7.58 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.99 % = -0.91 %-7.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.20 % = -0.20 %-10.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.10 % = -0.25 %-31.68 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 202 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.99 % = 0.19 %1.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.20 % = 0.04 %1.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.10 % = 0.06 %7.71 %
Sell Signals - 154 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.38 % minus 0.99 % = 0.39 %3.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.20 % = 0.07 %3.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.10 % = 0.19 %24.21 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.90 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.91 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.08 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.32 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.08 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.33 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Illinois Tool Works Inc. Moving Averages - ITW