JNJ Averages

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

JNJ: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to JNJ stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for JNJ.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




JNJ: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Patterson Companies, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and ACM Income Fund. Meanwhile, bad news came from LSI Corporation and Sempra Energy.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 1.04 % = -0.90 %-7.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.21 % = -0.02 %-0.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.10 % = -0.27 %-34.26 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 1.04 % = -0.06 %-0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %-6.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.10 % = -0.33 %-42.01 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 1.04 % = -0.10 %-0.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.21 % = -0.22 %-11.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.10 % = -0.23 %-29.30 %
Sell Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 1.04 % = -0.41 %-3.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.21 % = -0.33 %-16.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.10 % = -0.22 %-28.45 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 1.04 % = -0.77 %-6.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.21 % = -0.31 %-15.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.10 % = -0.31 %-39.48 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 1.04 % = 0.24 %2.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %-6.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %-0.59 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 701 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 1.04 % = -0.04 %-0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.21 % = 0.01 %0.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %0.51 %
Sell Signals - 700 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 1.04 % = -0.11 %-0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.21 % = 0.03 %1.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.10 % = 0.04 %4.72 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 992 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 1.04 % = 0.03 %0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.21 % = 0.06 %3.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.10 % = 0.05 %6.81 %
Sell Signals - 992 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 1.04 % = -0.03 %-0.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.21 % = 0.01 %0.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.10 % = 0.05 %6.29 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 404 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 1.04 % = -0.10 %-0.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.21 % = -0.09 %-4.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.10 % = 0.06 %7.93 %
Sell Signals - 404 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 1.04 % = 0.05 %0.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.21 % = -0.17 %-8.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.12 %-15.46 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 1.04 % = 0.06 %0.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.21 % = -0.08 %-3.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.10 % = 0.10 %12.25 %
Sell Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.44 % minus 1.04 % = 0.40 %3.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.21 % = 0.11 %5.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.10 % = 0.05 %6.69 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.51 % minus 1.04 % = 1.47 %12.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.42 % minus 0.21 % = 1.22 %61.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 0.10 % = 1.10 %140.17 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.79 % minus 1.04 % = 0.75 %6.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.21 % = 0.25 %12.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.10 % = 0.12 %15.65 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 260 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 1.04 % = -0.23 %-1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.21 % = -0.05 %-2.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %-6.36 %
Sell Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 1.04 % = -0.25 %-2.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.21 % = -0.04 %-1.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %2.80 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.47 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.41 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.22 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.33 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.10 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.33 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Johnson and Johnson Moving Averages - JNJ