Moving Average Analysis of JPM

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The current price is 2.00 % above the 200 bar SMA and it has increased the distance since last week. This represents phase 1 of the MACD cycle.

JPM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for JP Morgan Chase:

Different ways of averaging are tested on JPM stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for JPM.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




JPM: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.64 % minus 0.97 % = 0.67 %5.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.20 % = 0.45 %22.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.10 % = 0.15 %18.82 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.97 % = -0.45 %-3.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.20 % = 0.25 %12.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.10 % = 0.65 %82.94 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.97 % = -0.53 %-4.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.20 % = 0.11 %5.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.10 % = 0.20 %25.55 %
Sell Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.97 % = -0.63 %-5.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.20 % = 0.05 %2.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.10 % = 0.17 %21.88 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 54 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.97 % = -0.04 %-0.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.20 % = 0.61 %30.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.10 % = 0.64 %80.93 %
Sell Signals - 53 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.97 % = -0.24 %-2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.20 % = -0.05 %-2.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.19 %-24.41 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 605 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.97 % = -0.12 %-1.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.20 % = -0.09 %-4.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.10 % = -0.08 %-9.53 %
Sell Signals - 605 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.97 % = -0.16 %-1.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.20 % = -0.19 %-9.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.17 %-21.48 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 865 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 0.97 % = 0.13 %1.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.20 % = 0.02 %0.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %1.41 %
Sell Signals - 865 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.97 % = 0.23 %1.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.20 % = 0.17 %8.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.10 % = 0.15 %18.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 341 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.97 % = -0.32 %-2.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.20 % = 0.23 %11.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.10 % = 0.30 %38.53 %
Sell Signals - 342 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.97 % = -0.81 %-6.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.20 % = -0.28 %-14.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.16 %-20.33 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 230 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.97 % = 0.15 %1.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.20 % = -0.03 %-1.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.08 %-10.68 %
Sell Signals - 231 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.97 % = 0.03 %0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.20 % = -0.01 %-0.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.10 % = 0.13 %16.51 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.89 % minus 0.97 % = -1.86 %-15.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.20 % = -0.92 %-46.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.10 % = -0.50 %-63.25 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.97 % = -0.08 %-0.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.20 % = 0.63 %31.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.10 % = 0.29 %36.55 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.97 % = -0.19 %-1.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.20 % = -0.15 %-7.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.10 % = -0.14 %-17.35 %
Sell Signals - 211 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.97 % = -0.17 %-1.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.20 % = -0.28 %-14.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.10 % = -0.14 %-18.11 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.67 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.81 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.61 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.64 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.19 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for JPM Stock Prices