Moving Average Analysis of K

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

K: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Kellogg Company:

Different ways of averaging are tested on K stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to K stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Kellogg Company
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.87 % = -0.43 %-3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.18 % = 0.45 %22.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.09 % = 0.45 %57.66 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.61 % minus 0.87 % = -1.48 %-12.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 0.18 % = -0.76 %-38.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.76 % minus 0.09 % = -0.85 %-107.61 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.45 % minus 0.87 % = 0.57 %4.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.18 % = 0.27 %13.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %9.31 %
Sell Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.87 % = -0.09 %-0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.18 % = -0.21 %-10.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.18 %-23.34 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.87 % = -0.46 %-3.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.18 % = -0.15 %-7.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.09 % = -0.29 %-36.81 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.87 % = -0.82 %-6.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.31 %-15.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.17 %-22.05 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 666 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.87 % = -0.20 %-1.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %-0.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-7.63 %
Sell Signals - 666 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.87 % = -0.18 %-1.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %0.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-4.48 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 877 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.87 % = -0.06 %-0.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %0.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %4.02 %
Sell Signals - 876 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.87 % = -0.10 %-0.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %-0.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %2.02 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 358 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.87 % = 0.08 %0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.18 % = 0.04 %2.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.32 %
Sell Signals - 358 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 0.87 % = 0.40 %3.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.18 % = 0.21 %10.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.94 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 0.87 % = 0.23 %1.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.18 % = 0.15 %7.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.70 %
Sell Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 0.87 % = 0.35 %2.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.18 % = 0.06 %3.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %3.23 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.87 % = -0.64 %-5.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.18 % = 0.31 %15.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.09 % = 0.27 %33.68 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.87 % = 0.11 %0.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.18 % = 0.25 %12.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.22 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.87 % = 0.32 %2.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.18 % = 0.08 %4.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %7.10 %
Sell Signals - 180 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.87 % = -0.38 %-3.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.18 % = -0.09 %-4.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-0.94 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.57 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.48 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.45 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.85 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.45 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.85 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for K Stock Prices