Moving Average Indicators for LMT

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Lockheed Martin Corporation
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Lockheed Martin Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on LMT stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to LMT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




LMT: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 1.02 % = -0.74 %-6.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.46 % minus 0.20 % = -0.66 %-33.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %20.82 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 1.02 % = -0.56 %-4.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.20 % = -0.04 %-1.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.10 % = 0.35 %44.33 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 1.02 % = 0.06 %0.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.20 % = -0.12 %-6.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.10 % = -0.08 %-9.63 %
Sell Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 1.02 % = 0.11 %0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.20 % = -0.16 %-8.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.17 %-21.87 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 1.02 % = 0.26 %2.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.20 % = 0.37 %18.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.10 % = 0.45 %57.15 %
Sell Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.98 % minus 1.02 % = 0.96 %8.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.20 % = 0.66 %33.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.10 % = 0.19 %24.75 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 751 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 1.02 % = -0.14 %-1.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %-0.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %-0.42 %
Sell Signals - 751 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 1.02 % = -0.05 %-0.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %1.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %-1.64 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 1016 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 1.02 % = -0.23 %-1.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.06 %-3.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.10 % = -0.07 %-8.52 %
Sell Signals - 1015 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 1.02 % = -0.31 %-2.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.20 % = -0.13 %-6.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-5.37 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 415 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 1.02 % = 0.08 %0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.20 % = -0.04 %-2.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.10 % = 0.06 %7.42 %
Sell Signals - 415 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 1.02 % = 0.21 %1.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.20 % = 0.13 %6.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.10 % = 0.18 %23.32 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 1.02 % = -0.30 %-2.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.20 % = -0.19 %-9.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.11 %-13.78 %
Sell Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 1.02 % = -0.39 %-3.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.20 % = -0.09 %-4.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %-3.50 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 1.02 % = -1.32 %-11.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.20 % = 0.24 %12.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.10 % = 0.33 %41.89 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 1.02 % = 0.11 %0.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.20 % = 0.63 %31.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.10 % = 0.09 %11.55 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 272 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 1.02 % = -0.31 %-2.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.20 % = -0.13 %-6.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %-6.57 %
Sell Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 1.02 % = 0.09 %0.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.20 % = 0.02 %1.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %17.23 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.26 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.56 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.37 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.16 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.45 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.17 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for Lockheed Martin Corporation