Moving Average Analysis of LOJN

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of LoJack Corp
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for LoJack Corp:

Different ways of averaging are tested on LOJN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for LOJN.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




LOJN: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Thursday, February 04, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation and Eastman Kodak.

From the News Archive: (2/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., PNC Financial Services, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Northrop Grumman Corporation.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.91 % minus 0.57 % = -4.48 %-37.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.55 % minus 0.13 % = -0.69 %-34.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.07 % = 0.25 %31.62 %
Sell Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.57 % = -1.00 %-8.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.13 % = 0.28 %13.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.07 % = 0.49 %62.70 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 132 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 0.57 % = 0.69 %5.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.13 % = 0.16 %8.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.07 % = 0.22 %28.34 %
Sell Signals - 133 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.57 % = -1.02 %-8.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.13 % = -0.35 %-17.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.07 % = -0.02 %-2.00 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -4.30 % minus 0.57 % = -4.87 %-41.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.82 % minus 0.13 % = -0.95 %-48.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.07 % = 0.07 %9.25 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.84 % minus 0.57 % = -4.41 %-37.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.26 % minus 0.13 % = -1.39 %-70.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.15 % minus 0.07 % = -1.22 %-155.01 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 463 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.57 % = 0.11 %0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.13 % = -0.16 %-8.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.11 %-13.41 %
Sell Signals - 463 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.57 % = 0.09 %0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.20 %-10.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.07 % = -0.14 %-17.20 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 584 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.57 % = 0.09 %0.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.19 %-9.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.07 % = -0.16 %-20.72 %
Sell Signals - 584 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.57 % = 0.11 %0.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.13 % = -0.18 %-9.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.07 % = -0.24 %-30.53 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.96 % minus 0.57 % = -1.53 %-12.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.13 % = -0.44 %-22.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.07 % = -0.21 %-26.04 %
Sell Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.57 % = -0.75 %-6.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.13 % = 0.08 %4.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.07 % = 0.41 %52.69 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.57 % = -1.16 %-9.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.13 % = -0.47 %-24.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.10 %-13.11 %
Sell Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.57 % = 0.04 %0.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.13 % = 0.45 %23.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.07 % = 0.51 %65.24 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.89 % minus 0.57 % = -2.46 %-20.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.13 % = 0.01 %0.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.07 % = 0.23 %29.13 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -6.75 % minus 0.57 % = -7.33 %-62.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.92 % minus 0.13 % = -2.05 %-104.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.39 % minus 0.07 % = -1.46 %-185.06 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 147 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.57 % = -0.69 %-5.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.13 % = 0.27 %13.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.07 % = 0.21 %26.59 %
Sell Signals - 115 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 0.57 % = 0.71 %6.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.13 % = 0.61 %30.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.07 % = 0.35 %44.55 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.69 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -7.33 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.27 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -2.05 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.25 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.46 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis of - LOJN