Moving Average Analysis of LOJN

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From the Weekend Report 12/19/2008: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of LoJack Corp
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on LOJN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for LOJN.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




LOJN: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Intel, ticker symbol INTC. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Praxair, Inc. and Allegheny Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (12/31/2008 ) Favorable events happened at Fluor Corporation (NEW) and National City Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Office Depot, Inc. and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -4.17 % minus 0.50 % = -4.67 %-39.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.12 % = -0.32 %-16.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.07 % = 0.87 %110.98 %
Sell Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.50 % = -0.46 %-3.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.12 % = 0.45 %22.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.07 % = 0.71 %90.28 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 123 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.50 % = 0.55 %4.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.12 % = 0.10 %5.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.07 % = 0.13 %16.58 %
Sell Signals - 124 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.50 % = -0.79 %-6.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.12 % = -0.16 %-7.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.07 % = 0.13 %16.27 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.72 % minus 0.50 % = -4.22 %-35.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.93 % minus 0.12 % = -1.05 %-53.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.07 % = -0.22 %-28.42 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.70 % minus 0.50 % = -4.20 %-35.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose -2.00 % minus 0.12 % = -2.12 %-107.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.98 % minus 0.07 % = -2.05 %-259.75 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 441 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.50 % = 0.18 %1.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.12 % = -0.07 %-3.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.03 %-3.67 %
Sell Signals - 441 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.50 % = 0.19 %1.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.12 % = -0.12 %-6.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.05 %-6.47 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 550 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.50 % = 0.16 %1.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.12 % = -0.09 %-4.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.07 % = -0.07 %-9.09 %
Sell Signals - 549 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.50 % = 0.14 %1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.12 %-6.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.07 % = -0.18 %-23.31 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 251 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.76 % minus 0.50 % = -1.27 %-10.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.12 % = -0.41 %-20.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.07 % = -0.23 %-29.58 %
Sell Signals - 251 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.50 % = -0.44 %-3.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.12 % = 0.16 %8.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.07 % = 0.46 %58.33 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.92 % minus 0.50 % = -1.42 %-12.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.12 % = -0.53 %-26.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.07 % = -0.21 %-26.22 %
Sell Signals - 170 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.50 % = -0.19 %-1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.12 % = 0.42 %21.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.07 % = 0.53 %67.25 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.74 % minus 0.50 % = -2.24 %-18.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.12 % = 0.33 %16.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.07 % = 0.32 %41.26 %
Sell Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.37 % minus 0.50 % = -2.87 %-24.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.17 % minus 0.12 % = -1.29 %-65.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.07 % = -0.79 %-100.32 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 140 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.50 % = -0.25 %-2.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.12 % = 0.55 %27.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.07 % = 0.44 %55.31 %
Sell Signals - 102 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.50 % = -0.02 %-0.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.12 % = 0.32 %16.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.07 % = 0.09 %11.44 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.55 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -4.20 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -2.12 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.87 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -2.05 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for LoJack Corp Stock Prices - LOJN