Moving Average Analysis of LOJN

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, LOJN would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -10.00 % under the line.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on LOJN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for LOJN.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-4.17 % minus 0.49 % = -4.66 %	-39.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.20 % minus 0.12 % = -0.31 %	-15.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.94 % minus 0.06 % = 0.88 %	111.56 %
Sell Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.49 % = -0.45 %	-3.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.12 % = 0.45 %	22.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.78 % minus 0.06 % = 0.72 %	90.87 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 128 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.18 % minus 0.49 % = 0.69 %	5.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.12 % = 0.14 %	7.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.06 % = 0.22 %	27.61 %
Sell Signals - 128 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.56 % minus 0.49 % = -1.05 %	-8.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.20 % minus 0.12 % = -0.32 %	-16.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.06 % = 0.03 %	3.77 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-4.48 % minus 0.49 % = -4.97 %	-42.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.94 % minus 0.12 % = -1.06 %	-53.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.06 % = -0.04 %	-4.96 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-4.63 % minus 0.49 % = -5.13 %	-43.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-2.11 % minus 0.12 % = -2.23 %	-113.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.98 % minus 0.06 % = -2.05 %	-259.98 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 454 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.49 % = 0.19 %	1.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.12 % = -0.17 %	-8.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.06 % = -0.12 %	-15.11 %
Sell Signals - 454 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.49 % = 0.15 %	1.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.12 % = -0.25 %	-12.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.06 % = -0.15 %	-19.31 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 565 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.49 % = 0.04 %	0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.12 % = -0.20 %	-10.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.06 % = -0.15 %	-19.32 %
Sell Signals - 565 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.49 % = 0.07 %	0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.12 % = -0.19 %	-9.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.18 % minus 0.06 % = -0.25 %	-31.42 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 258 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.92 % minus 0.49 % = -1.41 %	-11.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.27 % minus 0.12 % = -0.39 %	-19.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.06 % = -0.19 %	-24.44 %
Sell Signals - 259 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.49 % = -0.61 %	-5.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %	6.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.06 % = 0.44 %	56.09 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.98 % minus 0.49 % = -1.48 %	-12.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.37 % minus 0.12 % = -0.49 %	-24.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.06 % = -0.11 %	-14.60 %
Sell Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.49 % = -0.24 %	-2.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.12 % = 0.45 %	22.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.06 % = 0.54 %	68.17 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.74 % minus 0.49 % = -2.23 %	-18.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.12 % = 0.34 %	17.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.06 % = 0.33 %	41.84 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-7.01 % minus 0.49 % = -7.50 %	-63.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-2.09 % minus 0.12 % = -2.21 %	-112.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.56 % minus 0.06 % = -1.63 %	-206.67 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.49 % = -0.71 %	-6.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.12 % = 0.31 %	15.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.06 % = 0.23 %	28.75 %
Sell Signals - 106 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.49 % = 0.23 %	1.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.12 % = 0.71 %	36.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.06 % = 0.45 %	57.34 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.69 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -7.50 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.34 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -2.23 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.88 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -2.05 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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Moving Average Convergence for LoJack Corp Stock Prices - LOJN