Moving Average Indicators for LU

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From the Weekend Report 4/7/2006: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

LU: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on LU stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for LU.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




LU: Moving Average Convergence
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In the news, Monday, February 08, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. (GAS) and ACM Income Fund (ACG)



MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.55 % minus 0.79 % = -1.34 %-11.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 0.16 % = -0.75 %-38.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.01 %-0.95 %
Sell Signals - 4 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.79 % = -1.08 %-9.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.68 % minus 0.16 % = -0.84 %-42.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.77 % minus 0.08 % = -0.84 %-106.99 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 66 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.66 % minus 0.79 % = -2.45 %-20.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.02 % minus 0.16 % = -1.18 %-59.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.63 % minus 0.08 % = -0.71 %-89.91 %
Sell Signals - 66 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.79 % = -0.99 %-8.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.78 % minus 0.16 % = -0.94 %-48.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.57 % minus 0.08 % = -0.65 %-81.95 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.84 % minus 0.79 % = 1.04 %8.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.84 % minus 0.16 % = -1.00 %-50.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.68 % minus 0.08 % = -0.75 %-95.80 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.79 % = 0.21 %1.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose -2.84 % minus 0.16 % = -3.01 %-152.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.97 % minus 0.08 % = -2.05 %-260.38 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 0.79 % = 0.50 %4.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.16 % = 0.00 %0.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.08 % = 0.18 %22.68 %
Sell Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 0.79 % = 0.67 %5.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.16 % = 0.01 %0.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.08 % = 0.09 %12.02 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 304 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.79 % = -0.47 %-3.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.16 % = -0.31 %-15.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.08 % = -0.15 %-19.21 %
Sell Signals - 303 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.79 % = -0.81 %-6.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.16 % = -0.32 %-16.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %-12.48 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 109 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.79 % = -0.65 %-5.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.16 % = 0.15 %7.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.08 % = 0.32 %40.15 %
Sell Signals - 109 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.63 % minus 0.79 % = -2.42 %-20.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.74 % minus 0.16 % = -0.90 %-45.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.08 % = -0.46 %-58.90 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 79 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.79 % = -1.19 %-10.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.16 % = -0.11 %-5.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %0.80 %
Sell Signals - 79 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.81 % minus 0.79 % = -1.60 %-13.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.87 % minus 0.16 % = -1.03 %-52.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.77 % minus 0.08 % = -0.85 %-107.99 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.74 % minus 0.79 % = 2.95 %24.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.16 % = 0.28 %14.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.08 % = -0.24 %-30.75 %
Sell Signals - 7 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -4.75 % minus 0.79 % = -5.55 %-46.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose -3.77 % minus 0.16 % = -3.93 %-199.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose -2.13 % minus 0.08 % = -2.21 %-280.70 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 75 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.79 % = -1.18 %-9.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.16 % = 0.11 %5.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.08 % = 0.24 %30.91 %
Sell Signals - 71 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.79 % = -0.14 %-1.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.16 % = 0.33 %16.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.08 % = 0.52 %66.62 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.95 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -5.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.28 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -3.93 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.32 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -2.21 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for LU Stock Prices