Moving Average Analysis of M

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: The week revealed M to still be above the 200 bar average, but the space between the price and the average line is narrowing.

M: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Macy's, Inc.:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Sliding Stops

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Bernoulli Analysis

Sentiment

Back to M Table of Contents

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to M stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for M.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Macy's, Inc.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.88 % minus 0.94 % = 2.95 %	24.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.18 % = 0.33 %	16.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 0.09 % = -0.48 %	-61.13 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.48 % minus 0.94 % = 0.54 %	4.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.30 % minus 0.18 % = -0.49 %	-24.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %	11.58 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 132 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 0.94 % = -0.28 %	-2.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.18 % = -0.24 %	-11.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.14 %	-17.56 %
Sell Signals - 133 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 0.94 % = 0.23 %	1.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.18 % = 0.08 %	4.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %	2.80 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.03 % minus 0.94 % = 1.09 %	9.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %	5.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %	8.05 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.94 % = 0.24 %	2.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.18 % = -0.17 %	-8.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.44 % minus 0.09 % = -0.54 %	-68.12 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 434 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.94 % = -0.29 %	-2.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %	0.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %	6.84 %
Sell Signals - 435 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 0.94 % = -0.26 %	-2.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.18 % = -0.19 %	-9.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %	-14.65 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 611 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.94 % minus 0.94 % = 0.00 %	0.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %	-1.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %	10.35 %
Sell Signals - 610 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 0.94 % = -0.04 %	-0.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %	-0.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.07 %	-9.07 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 257 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.94 % = -0.93 %	-7.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.38 % minus 0.18 % = -0.57 %	-28.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.09 % = -0.31 %	-39.61 %
Sell Signals - 256 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.94 % = -0.98 %	-8.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.34 % minus 0.18 % = -0.53 %	-26.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.09 % = -0.35 %	-44.19 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.94 % = -0.14 %	-1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.18 % = -0.20 %	-10.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.19 %	-23.58 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.74 % minus 0.94 % = -0.20 %	-1.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.18 % = -0.26 %	-13.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.24 % minus 0.09 % = -0.34 %	-42.56 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.96 % minus 0.94 % = 1.03 %	8.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.75 % minus 0.18 % = -0.94 %	-47.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.40 % minus 0.09 % = -0.49 %	-62.19 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.46 % minus 0.94 % = 1.52 %	12.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.30 % minus 0.18 % = 1.12 %	56.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.09 % = 0.12 %	14.77 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 148 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.94 % = -0.17 %	-1.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.18 % = 0.04 %	1.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %	10.39 %
Sell Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.94 % = -0.49 %	-4.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.18 % = -0.45 %	-22.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.09 % = -0.25 %	-31.67 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.95 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.98 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.33 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.53 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.08 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.54 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Macy's, Inc.

Detailed Average Level Analysis for M :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.