Moving Average Analysis of MET

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From the Weekend Report 8/27/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

MET: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for MetLife, Inc.:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to MET stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to MET stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of MetLife, Inc.
Companies In the News
Tuesday, September 07, 2010: We have news on Qiagen N.V., ticker symbol QGEN. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mattel, Inc. and SYSCO Corporation.

From the News Archive: (9/7/2010 ) Bad news came from Expeditors International of Washington, Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., Varian Medical Systems, Inc., and Apartment Investment and Management Co..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 4 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.89 % = -0.50 %-4.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.86 % minus 0.21 % = 1.65 %83.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.63 % minus 0.11 % = 1.51 %192.27 %
Sell Signals - 4 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.89 % = -1.57 %-13.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.00 % minus 0.21 % = -1.21 %-61.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.42 % minus 0.11 % = -1.53 %-194.56 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 75 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.89 % = 0.14 %1.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.21 % = -0.25 %-12.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.11 % = 0.03 %4.00 %
Sell Signals - 76 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.89 % = -1.13 %-9.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.21 % = -0.39 %-19.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.11 % = -0.36 %-46.06 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.99 % minus 0.89 % = 1.10 %9.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.21 % = 0.73 %36.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.11 % = 0.65 %83.14 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.39 % minus 0.89 % = -2.28 %-19.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose -2.22 % minus 0.21 % = -2.44 %-123.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.72 % minus 0.11 % = -1.83 %-232.27 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 282 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.89 % = -0.32 %-2.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.21 % = -0.20 %-10.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.11 % = -0.02 %-1.96 %
Sell Signals - 282 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.89 % = -0.58 %-4.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.21 % = -0.57 %-29.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.11 % = -0.31 %-39.60 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 370 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.89 % = -0.51 %-4.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.21 % = -0.27 %-13.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.06 %-7.29 %
Sell Signals - 370 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.89 % = -0.39 %-3.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.21 % = -0.18 %-9.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.03 %-3.37 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 155 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.34 % minus 0.89 % = -2.22 %-18.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.97 % minus 0.21 % = -1.18 %-59.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.11 % = -0.78 %-98.86 %
Sell Signals - 156 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.89 % = -1.46 %-12.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.21 % = -0.55 %-28.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.11 % = -0.25 %-31.78 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 109 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.56 % minus 0.89 % = -1.44 %-12.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.82 % minus 0.21 % = -1.04 %-52.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.11 % = -0.82 %-104.75 %
Sell Signals - 110 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.89 % = -0.38 %-3.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.21 % = 0.28 %14.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.11 % = 0.56 %71.15 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.71 % minus 0.89 % = 3.82 %32.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 2.30 % minus 0.21 % = 2.09 %106.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 0.11 % = 1.64 %208.33 %
Sell Signals - 7 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.14 % minus 0.89 % = -3.02 %-25.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.25 % minus 0.21 % = -1.46 %-74.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.85 % minus 0.11 % = -1.96 %-248.97 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 85 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.89 % = -0.48 %-4.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.21 % = -0.23 %-11.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.11 % = 0.04 %4.51 %
Sell Signals - 74 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.54 % minus 0.89 % = -1.43 %-12.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.21 % = -0.47 %-23.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.03 %-3.63 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 3.82 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -3.02 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 2.09 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -2.44 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.64 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.96 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Convergence for MetLife, Inc. Stock Prices - MET