MO Averages

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

MO: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on MO stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for MO.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Philip Morris
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.30 % minus 1.29 % = 1.01 %8.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.26 % = 0.83 %42.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.13 % = 0.48 %60.90 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.55 % minus 1.29 % = 0.26 %2.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.26 % = 0.21 %10.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.13 % = -0.02 %-2.18 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.59 % minus 1.29 % = 0.29 %2.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.26 % = 0.49 %24.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.13 % = 0.44 %55.81 %
Sell Signals - 215 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 1.29 % = -0.35 %-2.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.26 % = -0.37 %-19.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.21 %-26.33 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.36 % minus 1.29 % = 1.06 %9.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.26 % = 0.45 %22.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %5.90 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 1.29 % = -0.86 %-7.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.26 % = -0.67 %-34.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.13 % = -0.54 %-68.10 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 654 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 1.29 % = -0.24 %-2.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.26 % = -0.06 %-3.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.13 % = 0.01 %1.28 %
Sell Signals - 648 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 1.29 % = -0.06 %-0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.26 % = 0.08 %3.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.13 % = 0.06 %7.01 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 911 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 1.29 % = 0.08 %0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.26 % = 0.03 %1.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.13 % = 0.00 %-0.59 %
Sell Signals - 914 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 1.29 % = -0.10 %-0.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.26 % = -0.12 %-6.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.13 % = -0.10 %-12.32 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 394 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 1.29 % = -0.33 %-2.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.26 % = -0.45 %-22.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.13 % = -0.35 %-44.88 %
Sell Signals - 393 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.81 % minus 1.29 % = 0.51 %4.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.26 % = 0.31 %15.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.13 % = 0.23 %29.71 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 1.29 % = -1.28 %-10.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.65 % minus 0.26 % = -0.91 %-45.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.60 % minus 0.13 % = -0.73 %-92.30 %
Sell Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 1.29 % = -0.29 %-2.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.26 % = 0.09 %4.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.13 % = 0.25 %32.30 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.40 % minus 1.29 % = 1.11 %9.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.26 % = 0.10 %4.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.13 % = 0.12 %15.16 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 1.29 % = -0.42 %-3.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.26 % = -0.51 %-26.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.13 % = -0.71 %-90.41 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 259 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.06 % minus 1.29 % = 0.76 %6.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.26 % = 0.37 %18.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.13 % = 0.18 %22.71 %
Sell Signals - 165 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 1.29 % = -1.14 %-9.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.26 % = -0.52 %-26.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.13 % = -0.44 %-56.08 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.11 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -1.14 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.83 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.67 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.48 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.71 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Convergence for Philip Morris Stock Prices - MO