MO Averages

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From the Weekend Report 1/22/2010: In relation to the 200 bar moving average, MO appears to be in phase 2 of the long term oscillation cycle. While still 13.00 % above the line, the gap has closed some since the end of last week.

MO: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on MO stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for MO.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Moving Average Convergence of Philip Morris

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Friday, February 05, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with ACM Income Fund, ticker symbol ACG. Also, there are breaking events concerning United Technologies (UTX) and MicroSoft (MSFT)

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.09 % minus 1.31 % = 0.77 %	6.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.26 % = 0.39 %	19.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.13 % = -0.24 %	-29.85 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.26 % minus 1.31 % = -0.05 %	-0.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.26 % = 0.00 %	0.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.29 % minus 0.13 % = -0.42 %	-53.11 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 211 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.72 % minus 1.31 % = 0.41 %	3.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.26 % = 0.45 %	22.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.13 % = 0.40 %	50.91 %
Sell Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 1.31 % = -0.16 %	-1.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.26 % = -0.25 %	-12.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.13 % = -0.19 %	-23.63 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.44 % minus 1.31 % = 1.12 %	9.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 0.26 % = 0.58 %	29.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.13 % = 0.35 %	44.19 %
Sell Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 1.31 % = -0.40 %	-3.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.26 % = -0.57 %	-29.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.13 % = -0.41 %	-52.62 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 668 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 1.31 % = -0.21 %	-1.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.26 % = -0.01 %	-0.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %	6.38 %
Sell Signals - 663 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.33 % minus 1.31 % = 0.01 %	0.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.26 % = 0.17 %	8.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %	16.15 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 946 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.42 % minus 1.31 % = 0.11 %	0.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.26 % = 0.12 %	6.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.13 % = 0.09 %	11.00 %
Sell Signals - 946 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.21 % minus 1.31 % = -0.11 %	-0.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.26 % = -0.07 %	-3.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.07 %	-9.36 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 396 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 1.31 % = -0.32 %	-2.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.21 % minus 0.26 % = -0.47 %	-23.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.24 % minus 0.13 % = -0.37 %	-47.61 %
Sell Signals - 398 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.91 % minus 1.31 % = 0.59 %	5.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.26 % = 0.32 %	16.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.13 % = 0.28 %	35.65 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 274 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 1.31 % = -1.17 %	-9.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.62 % minus 0.26 % = -0.88 %	-44.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.53 % minus 0.13 % = -0.66 %	-83.77 %
Sell Signals - 273 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.08 % minus 1.31 % = -0.24 %	-2.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.26 % = 0.08 %	3.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.13 % = 0.16 %	19.76 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.67 % minus 1.31 % = 0.35 %	2.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.26 % = -0.57 %	-29.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.13 % = -0.29 %	-36.61 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 1.31 % = -0.70 %	-5.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.26 % = -0.41 %	-20.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.32 % minus 0.13 % = -0.45 %	-57.04 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 274 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.98 % minus 1.31 % = 0.67 %	5.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.26 % = 0.29 %	14.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.13 % = 0.19 %	24.06 %
Sell Signals - 170 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 1.31 % = -1.31 %	-11.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.26 % = -0.57 %	-28.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.13 % = -0.41 %	-52.54 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.12 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.31 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.58 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.57 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.40 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.45 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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