MOT Averages

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: After increasing the spread over the week, MOT is now 32.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Motorola
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Different ways of averaging are tested on MOT stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to MOT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




MOT: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.87 % = -1.08 %-9.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.44 % minus 0.18 % = -0.62 %-31.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %9.08 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.87 % = -1.07 %-9.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.18 % = -0.12 %-6.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.10 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.87 % = -0.04 %-0.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %5.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.18 %-23.35 %
Sell Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.87 % = 0.04 %0.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.18 % = 0.02 %0.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %13.99 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.87 % = -1.58 %-13.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.18 % = 0.33 %16.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.15 %-19.32 %
Sell Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.87 % = -0.79 %-6.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.18 % = -0.49 %-24.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.09 % = -0.20 %-24.94 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 646 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.87 % = -0.08 %-0.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.18 % = 0.04 %1.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %3.48 %
Sell Signals - 645 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.87 % = 0.14 %1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.18 % = 0.13 %6.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %16.18 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 884 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.87 % = -0.17 %-1.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.18 % = -0.11 %-5.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.10 %-12.32 %
Sell Signals - 884 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.87 % = -0.08 %-0.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.05 %-2.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %0.00 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 367 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.87 % = 0.06 %0.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.18 % = 0.22 %11.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.09 % = 0.27 %34.50 %
Sell Signals - 367 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.87 % = -0.16 %-1.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-2.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %-14.25 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 251 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.41 % minus 0.87 % = 0.54 %4.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.18 % = 0.08 %4.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %3.12 %
Sell Signals - 251 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.87 % = 0.31 %2.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.18 % = 0.23 %11.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %16.34 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.87 % = -0.37 %-3.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.18 % = 0.37 %18.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.08 %-9.76 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.87 % = -0.16 %-1.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.18 % = 0.53 %27.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.09 % = 0.28 %35.84 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 230 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.87 % = 0.33 %2.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.18 % = 0.28 %14.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-1.59 %
Sell Signals - 227 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.87 % = -1.30 %-11.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.54 % minus 0.18 % = -0.71 %-36.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.28 % minus 0.09 % = -0.37 %-46.59 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.54 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.30 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.37 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.71 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.27 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.37 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Moving Average Analysis for MOT Stock Prices