Moving Average Analysis of MRO

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: MRO has fallen -7.00 % below the 200 bar average line, increasing the distance over the past week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Marathon Oil Corporation

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to MRO stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for MRO.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.54 % minus 1.14 % = 0.41 %	3.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.23 % = 0.48 %	24.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.12 % = 0.25 %	32.27 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 1.14 % = -0.79 %	-6.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.23 % = -0.19 %	-9.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.11 %	-13.95 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.24 % minus 1.14 % = 0.11 %	0.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.23 % = 0.33 %	16.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.12 % = 0.29 %	37.18 %
Sell Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 1.14 % = -0.07 %	-0.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.23 % = -0.07 %	-3.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.12 % = 0.03 %	3.60 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 54 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.94 % minus 1.14 % = 0.81 %	6.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.23 % = -0.22 %	-11.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.12 % = -0.20 %	-25.20 %
Sell Signals - 54 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 1.14 % = -0.83 %	-7.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.34 % minus 0.23 % = -0.57 %	-29.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.12 % = -0.40 %	-50.31 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 766 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 1.14 % = -0.04 %	-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.23 % = -0.12 %	-5.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.12 % = -0.12 %	-14.91 %
Sell Signals - 765 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 1.14 % = -0.07 %	-0.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.23 % = -0.18 %	-9.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.12 % = -0.16 %	-19.81 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 980 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.98 % minus 1.14 % = -0.16 %	-1.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.23 % = -0.17 %	-8.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.12 % = -0.11 %	-14.58 %
Sell Signals - 980 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.12 % minus 1.14 % = -0.02 %	-0.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.23 % = -0.01 %	-0.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.12 % = -0.02 %	-2.09 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 410 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 1.14 % = -0.48 %	-4.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.23 % = -0.04 %	-2.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.12 % = 0.01 %	1.15 %
Sell Signals - 410 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 1.14 % = -0.39 %	-3.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.23 % = 0.10 %	5.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.12 % = 0.15 %	19.00 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 310 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.78 % minus 1.14 % = -0.36 %	-3.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.23 % = 0.03 %	1.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.01 %	-1.60 %
Sell Signals - 311 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.06 % minus 1.14 % = -0.08 %	-0.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.23 % = 0.23 %	11.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.12 % = 0.18 %	22.82 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.83 % minus 1.14 % = 1.69 %	14.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.23 % = 0.48 %	24.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.12 % = 0.38 %	47.96 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.38 % minus 1.14 % = -1.51 %	-12.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.76 % minus 0.23 % = -0.99 %	-50.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.35 % minus 0.12 % = -0.47 %	-59.42 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 271 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 1.14 % = -0.26 %	-2.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.23 % = 0.30 %	15.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %	15.53 %
Sell Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.89 % minus 1.14 % = -0.24 %	-2.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.23 % = -0.14 %	-7.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.12 % = 0.02 %	2.63 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.69 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -1.51 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.48 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.99 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.47 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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Moving Average Convergence for Marathon Oil Corporation Stock Prices - MRO