Moving Average Analysis of MSFT

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From the Weekend Report 2/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of MicroSoft

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Different ways of averaging are tested on MSFT stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to MSFT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on Nicor Inc., ticker symbol GAS. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning American International Group, Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.33 % minus 1.92 % = 0.41 %	3.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.38 % = -0.15 %	-7.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.19 % = 0.26 %	33.11 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.93 % minus 1.92 % = 1.01 %	8.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.37 % minus 0.38 % = 0.99 %	50.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.94 % minus 0.19 % = 0.74 %	94.36 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 164 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 1.92 % = -0.47 %	-3.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.38 % = -0.25 %	-12.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %	-4.59 %
Sell Signals - 164 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.88 % minus 1.92 % = -0.04 %	-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.38 % = -0.38 %	-19.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.19 % = -0.19 %	-23.91 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.58 % minus 1.92 % = 0.66 %	5.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.39 % minus 0.38 % = 1.01 %	51.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 0.19 % = 0.81 %	102.34 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.90 % minus 1.92 % = -0.02 %	-0.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.38 % = -0.51 %	-26.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.20 % minus 0.19 % = -0.39 %	-50.01 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 564 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.68 % minus 1.92 % = -0.24 %	-2.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.38 % = -0.09 %	-4.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.19 % = 0.01 %	0.92 %
Sell Signals - 563 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.89 % minus 1.92 % = -0.03 %	-0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.38 % = 0.08 %	4.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.19 % = 0.06 %	7.05 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 795 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.35 % minus 1.92 % = 0.43 %	3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.38 % = 0.13 %	6.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %	10.67 %
Sell Signals - 795 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.07 % minus 1.92 % = 0.15 %	1.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.38 % = -0.11 %	-5.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.09 %	-11.59 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 333 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.39 % minus 1.92 % = -0.53 %	-4.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.38 % = -0.32 %	-16.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.19 % = -0.28 %	-35.14 %
Sell Signals - 332 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.69 % minus 1.92 % = -0.23 %	-1.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.38 % = 0.06 %	3.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.19 % = 0.05 %	6.33 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.23 % minus 1.92 % = -0.69 %	-5.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.38 % = -0.13 %	-6.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %	4.36 %
Sell Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 1.92 % = -0.93 %	-7.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.38 % = -0.51 %	-25.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.19 % = -0.46 %	-58.12 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 40 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.04 % minus 1.92 % = 1.12 %	9.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.06 % minus 0.38 % = 0.68 %	34.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.19 % = 0.19 %	23.76 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.30 % minus 1.92 % = 0.38 %	3.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.38 % = 0.13 %	6.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.19 % = 0.13 %	16.33 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.67 % minus 1.92 % = -0.25 %	-2.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 0.38 % = 0.29 %	14.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.19 % = 0.15 %	19.55 %
Sell Signals - 171 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.40 % minus 1.92 % = -0.52 %	-4.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.38 % = -0.37 %	-18.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.19 % = -0.17 %	-22.22 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.12 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.93 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.01 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.51 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.81 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

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MicroSoft Moving Averages - MSFT