Moving Average Analysis of MSFT

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of MicroSoft

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for MicroSoft:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Price Behavior Surfaces

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Bernoulli Analysis

Back to MSFT Table of Contents

Different ways of averaging are tested on MSFT stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to MSFT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning American Tower Corporation and MicroSoft. From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from Mylan Inc., TECO Energy, Inc., PepsiCo, and Sempra Energy.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.23 % minus 1.89 % = 0.33 %	2.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.37 % = -0.21 %	-10.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.19 % = 0.14 %	18.30 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.79 % minus 1.89 % = 0.89 %	7.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.26 % minus 0.37 % = 0.89 %	44.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.19 % = 0.53 %	67.93 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 168 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.78 % minus 1.89 % = -0.11 %	-0.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.37 % = -0.09 %	-4.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.19 % = 0.06 %	7.95 %
Sell Signals - 167 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.07 % minus 1.89 % = 0.17 %	1.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.37 % = -0.37 %	-18.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.19 % = -0.17 %	-21.63 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 40 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.62 % minus 1.89 % = 0.72 %	6.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.22 % minus 0.37 % = 0.84 %	42.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.87 % minus 0.19 % = 0.68 %	85.91 %
Sell Signals - 40 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.21 % minus 1.89 % = 0.32 %	2.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.37 % = -0.35 %	-17.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.19 % = -0.21 %	-27.04 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 566 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 1.89 % = -0.24 %	-2.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.37 % = 0.01 %	0.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.19 % = 0.06 %	7.48 %
Sell Signals - 565 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.85 % minus 1.89 % = -0.04 %	-0.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.37 % = 0.17 %	8.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.19 % = 0.11 %	14.13 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 786 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.21 % minus 1.89 % = 0.32 %	2.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.37 % = 0.23 %	11.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.19 % = 0.19 %	24.57 %
Sell Signals - 785 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.86 % minus 1.89 % = -0.03 %	-0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.37 % = -0.07 %	-3.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %	-4.93 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 326 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.43 % minus 1.89 % = -0.47 %	-3.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.37 % = -0.29 %	-14.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.19 % = -0.23 %	-29.72 %
Sell Signals - 327 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.61 % minus 1.89 % = -0.28 %	-2.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.37 % = 0.04 %	2.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.19 % = 0.01 %	0.87 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 1.89 % = -0.93 %	-7.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.37 % = -0.17 %	-8.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %	10.33 %
Sell Signals - 185 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 1.89 % = -1.16 %	-9.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.37 % = -0.46 %	-23.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.17 % minus 0.19 % = -0.36 %	-46.25 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.14 % minus 1.89 % = 1.25 %	10.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.19 % minus 0.37 % = 0.82 %	41.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.19 % = 0.46 %	57.93 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.39 % minus 1.89 % = 0.50 %	4.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.37 % = 0.09 %	4.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.19 % = -0.07 %	-8.86 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.57 % minus 1.89 % = -0.32 %	-2.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.37 % = 0.09 %	4.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %	10.15 %
Sell Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.31 % minus 1.89 % = -0.59 %	-4.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.37 % = -0.43 %	-21.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.19 % = -0.23 %	-29.49 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.25 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -1.16 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.84 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.68 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.36 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for MicroSoft

Detailed Average Level Analysis for MSFT :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2008 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.