MU Averages

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, MU would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is 0.00 % under the line.

MU: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to MU stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to MU stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Companies In the News

Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.69 % minus 1.60 % = -2.29 %	-19.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.31 % = 0.45 %	22.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.12 % minus 0.15 % = 0.96 %	122.31 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.39 % minus 1.60 % = 1.79 %	15.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.31 % = 0.06 %	2.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.29 %	-36.92 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 141 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.13 % minus 1.60 % = 0.53 %	4.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.31 % = 0.39 %	19.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %	9.79 %
Sell Signals - 142 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.29 % minus 1.60 % = -0.31 %	-2.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.43 % minus 0.31 % = -0.73 %	-37.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.15 % = -0.43 %	-55.23 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 1.60 % = -1.00 %	-8.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.40 % minus 0.31 % = -0.71 %	-35.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.37 % minus 0.15 % = -1.53 %	-193.71 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 1.60 % = -1.10 %	-9.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.68 % minus 0.31 % = -0.98 %	-49.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.15 % = -0.13 %	-16.27 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 447 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.89 % minus 1.60 % = 0.29 %	2.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.31 % = 0.16 %	8.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.15 % = -0.05 %	-6.67 %
Sell Signals - 447 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.53 % minus 1.60 % = 0.93 %	7.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.89 % minus 0.31 % = 0.58 %	29.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.15 % = 0.36 %	45.16 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 679 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.72 % minus 1.60 % = 0.12 %	1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.31 % = 0.46 %	23.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.15 % = 0.47 %	59.79 %
Sell Signals - 679 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.23 % minus 1.60 % = -0.37 %	-3.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.31 % = 0.16 %	8.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.15 % = 0.04 %	4.89 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.10 % minus 1.60 % = 0.50 %	4.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.31 % = -0.19 %	-9.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.30 %	-37.81 %
Sell Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.91 % minus 1.60 % = 0.31 %	2.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.31 % = -0.44 %	-22.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.41 % minus 0.15 % = -0.56 %	-71.46 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 172 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.96 % minus 1.60 % = 0.36 %	3.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 0.31 % = 0.33 %	17.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.79 % minus 0.15 % = 0.63 %	80.25 %
Sell Signals - 172 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.24 % minus 1.60 % = -0.36 %	-3.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.45 % minus 0.31 % = -0.75 %	-38.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.48 % minus 0.15 % = -0.63 %	-80.04 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.51 % minus 1.60 % = 0.91 %	7.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.72 % minus 0.31 % = 1.41 %	71.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.15 % = 0.64 %	81.40 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.37 % minus 1.60 % = 2.77 %	23.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.37 % minus 0.31 % = 1.06 %	53.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.56 % minus 0.15 % = 1.41 %	178.58 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.78 % minus 1.60 % = 1.18 %	9.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.31 % = 0.06 %	2.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.01 %	-1.86 %
Sell Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 1.60 % = -1.50 %	-12.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.31 % = -0.59 %	-29.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.15 % = -0.32 %	-40.03 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.18 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -1.50 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.41 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.98 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.96 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.63 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

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Micron Technology, Inc. Moving Averages - MU