Moving Average Analysis of MWV

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: MWV is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 13.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of MeadWestvaco Corp.
General Market Conditions
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to MWV stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for MWV.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




MWV: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and Wells Fargo & Company.

From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Pactiv Corporation, Marathon Oil Corporation, and Regions Financial Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Genzyme Corporation.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.72 % = -0.72 %-6.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.14 % = -0.10 %-5.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.07 % = 0.18 %23.49 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.39 % minus 0.72 % = -2.11 %-17.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.14 % = -0.64 %-32.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.07 % = -0.38 %-48.21 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.54 % minus 0.72 % = 0.82 %6.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.14 % = 0.32 %16.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.07 % = 0.27 %33.73 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.72 % = 0.36 %3.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.14 % = 0.20 %10.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.07 % = 0.25 %32.01 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 61 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.72 % = -0.68 %-5.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.14 % = 0.06 %3.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.07 % = 0.25 %31.84 %
Sell Signals - 61 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.47 % minus 0.72 % = -2.19 %-18.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.14 % = -0.67 %-33.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.32 % minus 0.07 % = -0.39 %-49.43 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 591 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.72 % = -0.12 %-1.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.14 % = 0.07 %3.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.07 % = 0.01 %1.81 %
Sell Signals - 591 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.72 % = -0.13 %-1.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.14 % = 0.04 %1.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.07 % = 0.04 %5.18 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 820 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.72 % = -0.43 %-3.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.14 % = -0.12 %-6.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.07 % = -0.07 %-8.75 %
Sell Signals - 819 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.72 % = -0.32 %-2.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.14 % = -0.13 %-6.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %-11.24 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 337 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 0.72 % = 0.40 %3.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.14 % = 0.14 %7.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.02 %2.99 %
Sell Signals - 336 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.72 % = 0.36 %3.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.14 % = -0.02 %-1.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.04 %-4.92 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 226 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.72 % = 0.18 %1.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.14 % = 0.08 %3.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.07 % = -0.06 %-7.56 %
Sell Signals - 226 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.72 % = -0.01 %-0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.14 % = -0.08 %-4.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.10 %-12.93 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.72 % = -0.01 %-0.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.14 % = -0.24 %-12.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.07 % = -0.46 %-58.96 %
Sell Signals - 53 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.96 % minus 0.72 % = -1.68 %-14.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.56 % minus 0.14 % = -0.70 %-35.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.07 % = -0.40 %-50.98 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 199 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.72 % = 0.03 %0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.14 % = -0.24 %-12.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.07 % = -0.17 %-21.02 %
Sell Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.72 % = 0.05 %0.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.14 % = -0.09 %-4.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.07 % = 0.00 %-0.61 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.82 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.19 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.32 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.70 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.27 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for MWV Stock Prices