NKE Averages

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Nike Footwear

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to NKE stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for NKE.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Moving Average Convergence of Nike Footwear

	Companies In the News
	Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Patterson Companies, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and ACM Income Fund. Meanwhile, bad news came from LSI Corporation and Sempra Energy.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 1.60 % = -0.53 %	-4.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.48 % minus 0.30 % = -0.78 %	-39.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 0.15 % = -0.54 %	-68.86 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 1.60 % = -0.35 %	-2.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.30 % = 0.13 %	6.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.15 % = 0.07 %	8.74 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 156 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 1.60 % = -0.40 %	-3.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.30 % = 0.01 %	0.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.15 % = -0.10 %	-12.83 %
Sell Signals - 155 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.39 % minus 1.60 % = -0.21 %	-1.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 0.30 % = 0.34 %	17.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.15 % = 0.21 %	26.93 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.67 % minus 1.60 % = 0.07 %	0.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.30 % = 0.50 %	25.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.79 % minus 0.15 % = 0.64 %	80.87 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 1.60 % = -1.21 %	-10.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.30 % = -0.09 %	-4.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.29 %	-36.65 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 505 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 1.60 % = -0.15 %	-1.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.30 % = -0.04 %	-1.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.15 % = 0.06 %	8.24 %
Sell Signals - 504 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.42 % minus 1.60 % = -0.18 %	-1.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.30 % = -0.22 %	-10.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.15 % = -0.11 %	-14.21 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 726 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.88 % minus 1.60 % = 0.28 %	2.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.30 % = 0.15 %	7.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %	10.07 %
Sell Signals - 726 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.80 % minus 1.60 % = 0.20 %	1.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.30 % = 0.12 %	6.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %	9.91 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 293 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.69 % minus 1.60 % = 0.09 %	0.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.30 % = 0.19 %	9.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.15 % = 0.18 %	23.41 %
Sell Signals - 294 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.40 % minus 1.60 % = -0.20 %	-1.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.30 % = -0.04 %	-2.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.15 % = 0.09 %	11.05 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.02 % minus 1.60 % = -0.58 %	-4.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.30 % = 0.10 %	5.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.15 % = 0.16 %	20.22 %
Sell Signals - 176 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 1.60 % = -1.13 %	-9.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.30 % = -0.11 %	-5.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.15 % = -0.14 %	-17.50 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 1.60 % = -1.43 %	-12.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.54 % minus 0.30 % = -0.84 %	-42.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.15 % = 0.10 %	12.41 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.37 % minus 1.60 % = -0.23 %	-1.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.30 % = 0.40 %	20.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.86 % minus 0.15 % = 0.71 %	89.83 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 1.60 % = 0.05 %	0.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.30 % = -0.09 %	-4.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %	-0.09 %
Sell Signals - 144 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.75 % minus 1.60 % = 0.15 %	1.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.30 % = 0.18 %	9.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.15 % = 0.27 %	34.87 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.28 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -1.21 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.50 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.22 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.64 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.29 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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