NKE Averages

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: NKE has fallen 0.00 % below the 200 bar average line, increasing the distance over the past week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Nike Footwear
General Market Conditions
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to NKE stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for NKE.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Nike Footwear
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 1.60 % = -0.55 %-4.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.30 % = -0.79 %-40.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.15 % = -0.55 %-69.88 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.48 % minus 1.60 % = -0.12 %-1.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.30 % = 0.36 %18.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.15 % = 0.26 %33.13 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 1.60 % = -0.37 %-3.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.30 % = 0.07 %3.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.15 % = -0.09 %-11.42 %
Sell Signals - 151 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 1.60 % = -0.27 %-2.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.30 % = 0.28 %13.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.15 % = 0.16 %20.20 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.63 % minus 1.60 % = 0.03 %0.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.30 % = 0.58 %29.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.15 % = 0.65 %83.11 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 1.60 % = -1.13 %-9.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.30 % = -0.02 %-1.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.15 % = -0.15 %-19.03 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 493 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.52 % minus 1.60 % = -0.08 %-0.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.30 % = -0.02 %-0.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %9.59 %
Sell Signals - 493 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 1.60 % = -0.14 %-1.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.30 % = -0.23 %-11.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.13 %-16.30 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 702 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.96 % minus 1.60 % = 0.36 %3.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.30 % = 0.15 %7.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.15 % = 0.09 %11.62 %
Sell Signals - 701 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.84 % minus 1.60 % = 0.24 %2.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.30 % = 0.10 %5.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.15 % = 0.06 %7.30 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 284 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.71 % minus 1.60 % = 0.11 %0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.30 % = 0.20 %10.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.15 % = 0.18 %22.33 %
Sell Signals - 285 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 1.60 % = -0.21 %-1.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.30 % = -0.04 %-1.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.15 % = 0.03 %3.58 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 1.60 % = -0.77 %-6.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.30 % = 0.04 %2.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.15 % = 0.16 %19.85 %
Sell Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 1.60 % = -1.35 %-11.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.30 % = -0.17 %-8.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.15 % = -0.15 %-18.74 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 1.60 % = -1.43 %-12.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.30 % = -0.83 %-42.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.15 % = 0.11 %13.50 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 1.60 % = -0.62 %-5.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.30 % = 0.16 %7.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.15 % = 0.56 %71.37 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.70 % minus 1.60 % = 0.10 %0.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.30 % = -0.13 %-6.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.15 % = -0.04 %-4.45 %
Sell Signals - 138 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.74 % minus 1.60 % = 0.14 %1.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.30 % = 0.19 %9.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.15 % = 0.28 %35.70 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.36 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -1.35 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.58 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.23 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.65 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.15 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis of - NKE