NOC Averages

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with NOC 9.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

NOC:  Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Northrop Grumman Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on NOC stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for NOC.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




NOC:  Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.10 % minus 1.13 % = 1.97 %16.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.21 % = 0.52 %26.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.07 %9.04 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.78 % minus 1.13 % = 0.65 %5.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.21 % = 0.42 %21.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.11 % = 0.26 %33.05 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 1.13 % = -0.28 %-2.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.21 % = -0.20 %-10.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.11 % = -0.09 %-11.99 %
Sell Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.60 % minus 1.13 % = 0.48 %4.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.21 % = 0.38 %19.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.11 % = 0.27 %33.98 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.47 % minus 1.13 % = 0.34 %2.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.21 % = 0.09 %4.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.11 % = 0.04 %5.24 %
Sell Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 1.13 % = -0.11 %-0.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.21 % = -0.40 %-20.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.20 %-25.43 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 638 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 1.13 % = -0.09 %-0.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.21 % = 0.02 %0.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.07 %8.93 %
Sell Signals - 638 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 1.13 % = 0.00 %0.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.21 % = 0.03 %1.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.11 % = -0.07 %-9.47 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 886 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 1.13 % = -0.18 %-1.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.21 % = -0.02 %-1.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.11 % = 0.02 %2.31 %
Sell Signals - 885 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 1.13 % = -0.35 %-2.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.21 % = -0.25 %-12.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.17 %-21.46 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 363 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 1.13 % = -0.07 %-0.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.21 % = 0.16 %8.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.11 % = 0.15 %18.75 %
Sell Signals - 363 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 1.13 % = -0.56 %-4.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.21 % = -0.15 %-7.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.11 % = -0.13 %-16.92 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 261 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 1.13 % = 0.03 %0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.21 % = 0.20 %10.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.11 % = 0.22 %27.91 %
Sell Signals - 261 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 1.13 % = -0.50 %-4.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %-6.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.19 %-24.10 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.78 % minus 1.13 % = 1.65 %13.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.21 % = 0.13 %6.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.11 % = 0.02 %2.48 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.85 % minus 1.13 % = 0.72 %6.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.21 % = 0.07 %3.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.11 % = -0.30 %-38.30 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 255 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 1.13 % = -0.14 %-1.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.21 % = 0.12 %5.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.11 % = 0.09 %11.75 %
Sell Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.38 % minus 1.13 % = 0.25 %2.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.21 % = 0.18 %9.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.11 % = 0.15 %18.46 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.97 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.56 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.52 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.22 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.30 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for NOC Stock Prices