Moving Average Analysis of NOVL

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: NOVL is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 1.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Novell, Inc.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on NOVL stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to NOVL stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

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MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.13 % minus 0.98 % = -2.11 %	-17.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 0.20 % = 0.70 %	35.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.86 % minus 0.10 % = 0.76 %	96.34 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.64 % minus 0.98 % = -2.62 %	-22.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.20 % = 0.12 %	6.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %	1.92 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 0.98 % = 0.18 %	1.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.20 % = -0.30 %	-15.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.16 %	-19.94 %
Sell Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 0.98 % = 0.12 %	1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.20 % = -0.16 %	-8.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.18 %	-23.15 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.98 % = -1.05 %	-8.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.20 % = -0.48 %	-24.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.41 % minus 0.10 % = -0.52 %	-65.73 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.54 % minus 0.98 % = 0.56 %	4.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.20 % = 0.26 %	13.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.10 % = 0.21 %	26.67 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 502 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.87 % minus 0.98 % = 0.89 %	7.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %	-1.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.10 % = -0.20 %	-25.89 %
Sell Signals - 501 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.71 % minus 0.98 % = 0.73 %	6.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.20 % = -0.01 %	-0.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.10 % = 0.09 %	11.31 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 723 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.03 % minus 0.98 % = 0.05 %	0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.20 % = -0.10 %	-4.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %	2.57 %
Sell Signals - 723 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.86 % minus 0.98 % = -0.12 %	-1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.20 % = -0.22 %	-11.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.10 % = -0.20 %	-25.59 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.69 % minus 0.98 % = 0.71 %	5.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.20 % = 0.14 %	7.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %	19.94 %
Sell Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.54 % minus 0.98 % = 0.57 %	4.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.20 % = 0.08 %	4.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.10 % = 0.04 %	5.06 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 204 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.68 % minus 0.98 % = 0.70 %	5.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.20 % = 0.24 %	12.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.10 % = 0.23 %	28.95 %
Sell Signals - 204 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.81 % minus 0.98 % = 0.83 %	7.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.20 % = 0.28 %	14.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.10 % = 0.13 %	16.06 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.62 % minus 0.98 % = -1.60 %	-13.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.20 % = -0.62 %	-31.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.10 % = 0.19 %	23.53 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.98 % = -0.90 %	-7.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 0.20 % = 0.47 %	23.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.20 % minus 0.10 % = -0.30 %	-38.32 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 0.98 % = 0.27 %	2.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 0.20 % = 0.46 %	23.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.10 % = 0.25 %	31.92 %
Sell Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.98 % = -1.24 %	-10.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.20 % = -0.28 %	-14.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.10 % = 0.06 %	7.79 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.89 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.62 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.70 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.76 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.30 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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