NYT Averages

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is -7.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week.

NYT: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to NYT stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to NYT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




NYT: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.31 % = 0.55 %4.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.06 % = 0.24 %12.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.03 % = -0.33 %-42.36 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.31 % = 0.30 %2.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.35 % minus 0.06 % = -0.41 %-20.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.03 % = -0.74 %-93.78 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.31 % = 0.13 %1.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.06 % = 0.04 %2.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.03 % = 0.03 %3.34 %
Sell Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.31 % = 0.29 %2.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %5.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.03 % = 0.04 %4.58 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.31 % = -0.05 %-0.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.06 % = -0.19 %-9.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.50 % minus 0.03 % = -0.53 %-67.24 %
Sell Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.31 % = 0.16 %1.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.06 % = 0.00 %0.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.03 % = 0.03 %3.34 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 591 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.31 % = -0.35 %-2.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.06 % = -0.07 %-3.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.03 % = -0.01 %-1.34 %
Sell Signals - 592 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.31 % = -0.34 %-2.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.06 % = -0.05 %-2.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.03 % = 0.00 %-0.32 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 801 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.31 % = 0.05 %0.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.06 % = 0.04 %2.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.03 % = 0.08 %9.75 %
Sell Signals - 800 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.31 % = 0.00 %-0.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.06 % = 0.03 %1.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.03 % = 0.01 %1.82 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 334 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.31 % = 0.16 %1.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.06 % = 0.17 %8.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.03 % = 0.06 %7.07 %
Sell Signals - 335 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.31 % = 0.07 %0.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.06 % = 0.28 %14.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.03 % = 0.29 %37.23 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 237 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.31 % = -0.08 %-0.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.06 % = -0.21 %-10.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.03 % = -0.15 %-19.30 %
Sell Signals - 238 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.31 % = -0.08 %-0.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.06 % = 0.01 %0.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.03 % = 0.04 %5.02 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.99 % minus 0.31 % = -1.30 %-10.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.06 % = -0.18 %-8.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.03 % = 0.06 %7.31 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.31 % = 0.60 %5.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.06 % = 0.85 %43.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.03 % = 0.58 %73.12 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 199 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.31 % = -0.33 %-2.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.06 % = 0.08 %4.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.03 % = 0.05 %6.77 %
Sell Signals - 171 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.31 % = -0.20 %-1.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.06 % = 0.12 %6.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.03 % = -0.02 %-2.28 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.55 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.34 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.24 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.74 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.08 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -0.74 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for The New York Times Company Stock Prices - NYT