Moving Average Analysis of PBI

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From the Weekend Report 1/22/2010: The price of PBI is -6.00 % below the 200 session average and is continuing to diverge in a negative manner, indicating phase 3 of the the 4 phase MACD cycle is still in effect.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to PBI stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to PBI stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and Wells Fargo & Company.

From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Pactiv Corporation, Marathon Oil Corporation, and Regions Financial Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Genzyme Corporation.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.76 % minus 0.99 % = 0.77 %	6.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.20 % = 0.16 %	8.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.10 % = 0.05 %	6.78 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.11 % minus 0.99 % = 1.13 %	9.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.20 % = 0.09 %	4.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %	2.65 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 218 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.51 % minus 0.99 % = 0.52 %	4.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.20 % = 0.14 %	7.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.10 % = 0.04 %	4.69 %
Sell Signals - 217 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.99 % = -0.19 %	-1.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %	-0.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.10 % = 0.04 %	5.27 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.54 % minus 0.99 % = 0.56 %	4.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.20 % = 0.27 %	13.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.10 % = 0.12 %	15.73 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.99 % = 0.18 %	1.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.20 % = 0.18 %	8.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.10 % = 0.28 %	35.35 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 711 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.19 % minus 0.99 % = 0.20 %	1.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.20 % = 0.07 %	3.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.02 %	-3.11 %
Sell Signals - 711 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 0.99 % = 0.26 %	2.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.20 % = 0.22 %	11.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.10 % = 0.18 %	22.72 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 918 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.13 % minus 0.99 % = 0.14 %	1.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.20 % = 0.18 %	9.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.10 % = 0.09 %	11.86 %
Sell Signals - 918 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 0.99 % = 0.11 %	0.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.20 % = 0.07 %	3.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %	1.24 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 391 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 0.99 % = -0.03 %	-0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.20 % = 0.06 %	3.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %	0.45 %
Sell Signals - 392 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 0.99 % = 0.17 %	1.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %	1.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %	-3.23 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 245 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 0.99 % = 0.02 %	0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.20 % = 0.24 %	12.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.10 % = 0.26 %	32.41 %
Sell Signals - 246 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.92 % minus 0.99 % = -0.07 %	-0.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.20 % = -0.08 %	-4.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %	-3.33 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.37 % minus 0.99 % = 1.39 %	11.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.28 % minus 0.20 % = 1.08 %	55.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.02 % minus 0.10 % = 0.92 %	116.60 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.99 % = -0.40 %	-3.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.20 % = -0.50 %	-25.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.29 % minus 0.10 % = -0.39 %	-49.52 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 274 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.12 % minus 0.99 % = 0.13 %	1.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.20 % = 0.25 %	12.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.10 % = 0.24 %	30.62 %
Sell Signals - 204 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.99 % = -0.55 %	-4.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.20 % = -0.27 %	-13.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.10 % = -0.20 %	-25.31 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.39 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.08 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.50 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.92 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.39 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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Moving Average Indicators for Pitney Bowes Inc.