Moving Average Indicators for PCL

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The week revealed PCL to still be above the 200 bar average, but the space between the price and the average line is narrowing.

PCL: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on PCL stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to PCL stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




PCL: Moving Average Convergence
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Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) and Zimmer Holdings, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at GameStop Corp. and Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company and Omnicom Group Inc..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.86 % minus 1.53 % = 1.33 %11.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.30 % = 1.02 %51.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.16 % = 0.19 %24.31 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.56 % minus 1.53 % = 0.04 %0.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.30 % = 0.18 %9.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.16 % = 0.16 %20.70 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 146 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.55 % minus 1.53 % = 0.03 %0.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.30 % = 0.22 %11.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.16 % = 0.22 %28.30 %
Sell Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 1.53 % = -0.59 %-4.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.30 % = -0.13 %-6.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.16 % = -0.15 %-18.90 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.30 % minus 1.53 % = 0.77 %6.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.30 % = -0.24 %-12.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.16 % = -0.09 %-11.14 %
Sell Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 1.53 % = -0.30 %-2.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.30 % = -0.04 %-1.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.27 %-34.49 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 516 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.09 % minus 1.53 % = -0.43 %-3.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.30 % = -0.08 %-4.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-5.96 %
Sell Signals - 515 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 1.53 % = -0.51 %-4.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.30 % = -0.10 %-4.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.16 % = -0.10 %-12.28 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 697 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.62 % minus 1.53 % = 0.09 %0.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.30 % = 0.15 %7.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.16 % = 0.13 %16.08 %
Sell Signals - 696 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.56 % minus 1.53 % = 0.03 %0.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.30 % = 0.09 %4.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.16 % = 0.04 %4.93 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 291 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 1.53 % = -0.63 %-5.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.30 % = -0.27 %-13.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.16 % = -0.30 %-38.30 %
Sell Signals - 292 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.67 % minus 1.53 % = 0.14 %1.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.30 % = 0.36 %18.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.16 % = 0.30 %37.70 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 1.53 % = -0.90 %-7.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.30 % = -0.27 %-13.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.16 % = -0.24 %-29.99 %
Sell Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 1.53 % = -0.03 %-0.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.30 % = 0.30 %15.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.16 % = 0.33 %41.61 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.35 % minus 1.53 % = 1.83 %15.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.31 % minus 0.30 % = 1.01 %51.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.38 % minus 0.16 % = 1.22 %154.83 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.24 % minus 1.53 % = -2.77 %-23.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.92 % minus 0.30 % = -2.23 %-113.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.29 % minus 0.16 % = -1.44 %-183.47 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 198 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.47 % minus 1.53 % = -0.06 %-0.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.30 % = -0.08 %-3.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.16 % = -0.03 %-3.46 %
Sell Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.94 % minus 1.53 % = 0.42 %3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.30 % = -0.24 %-11.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.16 % = -0.24 %-30.13 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.83 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -2.77 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.02 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -2.23 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.22 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Indicators for Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc.