Moving Average Analysis of PFG

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From the Weekend Report 3/19/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, PFG is now 13.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Principal Financial Group, Inc.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to PFG stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to PFG stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




PFG: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and TECO Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from MicroSoft, General Electric, Sempra Energy, and Walmart.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.97 % = 0.03 %0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.19 % = 0.82 %41.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.11 % = 0.15 %18.93 %
Sell Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.88 % minus 0.97 % = -3.85 %-32.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.19 % = 0.43 %22.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.11 % = 0.38 %47.75 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 65 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.97 % = -0.56 %-4.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.19 % = -0.10 %-5.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.11 % = 0.16 %20.56 %
Sell Signals - 64 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.97 % = -0.67 %-5.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.41 % minus 0.19 % = -0.61 %-30.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.11 % = -0.27 %-34.68 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.26 % minus 0.97 % = 0.29 %2.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.94 % minus 0.19 % = -2.13 %-108.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose -2.18 % minus 0.11 % = -2.29 %-290.31 %
Sell Signals - 7 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.97 % = 0.27 %2.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.19 % = -0.09 %-4.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.11 % = -0.53 %-67.39 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.97 % = -0.73 %-6.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.19 % = -0.62 %-31.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.11 % = -0.54 %-67.95 %
Sell Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.97 % = -0.10 %-0.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.19 % = 0.05 %2.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.11 % = 0.22 %27.76 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 280 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.97 % = 0.19 %1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.19 % = 0.18 %8.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.11 % = 0.14 %17.97 %
Sell Signals - 280 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.97 % = 0.06 %0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.19 % = -0.05 %-2.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.11 % = -0.10 %-12.08 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 113 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.97 % = -0.06 %-0.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.19 % = -0.57 %-29.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.11 % = -0.63 %-80.57 %
Sell Signals - 114 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 0.97 % = 0.24 %2.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %5.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.11 % = -0.12 %-15.63 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 77 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.46 % minus 0.97 % = -1.43 %-12.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.19 % = -0.40 %-20.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.11 % = -0.69 %-87.27 %
Sell Signals - 78 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.50 % minus 0.97 % = -1.47 %-12.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.19 % = 0.69 %35.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.11 % = 0.82 %104.44 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 6 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.10 % minus 0.97 % = -2.07 %-17.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose -2.01 % minus 0.19 % = -2.20 %-111.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.53 % minus 0.11 % = -1.64 %-207.70 %
Sell Signals - 4 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.20 % minus 0.97 % = -2.17 %-18.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.19 % = 0.44 %22.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.11 % = 0.67 %84.52 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 75 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.97 % = -1.21 %-10.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.19 % = -0.02 %-0.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.11 % = -0.23 %-29.57 %
Sell Signals - 57 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 0.97 % = 0.52 %4.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.19 % = 0.17 %8.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.11 % = -0.36 %-46.17 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.29 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -3.85 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.82 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.61 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.16 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.53 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis of - PFG