Moving Average Analysis of PG

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Procter and Gamble
General Market Conditions
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to PG stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to PG stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Procter and Gamble
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on Nicor Inc., ticker symbol GAS. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning American International Group, Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.99 % = -0.75 %-6.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.20 % = 0.21 %10.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.10 % = 0.13 %16.52 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 0.99 % = 0.44 %3.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.20 % = -0.08 %-4.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.10 % = -0.23 %-29.19 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 211 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 0.99 % = 0.28 %2.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.20 % = -0.03 %-1.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %-1.04 %
Sell Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.99 % = -0.12 %-1.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.06 %-2.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.10 % = -0.06 %-7.35 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.72 % minus 0.99 % = 1.73 %14.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.20 % = 1.00 %50.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.10 % = 0.85 %108.11 %
Sell Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.16 % minus 0.99 % = 1.17 %9.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.20 % = 0.18 %9.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.10 % = 0.12 %15.55 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 739 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.99 % = 0.09 %0.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.20 % = -0.05 %-2.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %-1.62 %
Sell Signals - 738 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 0.99 % = 0.08 %0.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.20 % = 0.01 %0.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %3.07 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 1010 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 0.99 % = 0.11 %0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.20 % = 0.17 %8.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.10 % = 0.13 %17.12 %
Sell Signals - 1010 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.99 % = 0.04 %0.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.20 % = 0.02 %0.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %-1.83 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 424 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.99 % = 0.09 %0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.20 % = 0.05 %2.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %1.54 %
Sell Signals - 425 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.31 % minus 0.99 % = 0.32 %2.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.20 % = 0.11 %5.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.10 % = 0.09 %12.01 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 290 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.99 % = 0.17 %1.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.06 %-2.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %0.33 %
Sell Signals - 290 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.38 % minus 0.99 % = 0.39 %3.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.20 % = 0.11 %5.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.10 % = 0.05 %5.82 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.94 % minus 0.99 % = 1.95 %16.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.52 % minus 0.20 % = 1.33 %67.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 0.10 % = 1.02 %129.54 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.62 % minus 0.99 % = 0.63 %5.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.20 % = 0.37 %18.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.10 % = 0.22 %27.73 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 280 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.99 % = 0.04 %0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.20 % = 0.19 %9.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.10 % = 0.12 %15.21 %
Sell Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.99 % = -0.18 %-1.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.20 % = -0.06 %-3.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.08 %-9.64 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.95 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.18 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.33 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.23 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.02 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.23 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Procter and Gamble Moving Averages - PG