Moving Average Indicators for PGN

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Progress Energy, Inc.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to PGN stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for PGN.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




PGN: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) and Amgen, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Walgreen Company, Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.74 % = -0.54 %-4.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.15 % = 0.09 %4.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.07 % = 0.12 %15.61 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.74 % = -0.62 %-5.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.15 % = 0.22 %11.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.07 % = 0.24 %30.86 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.74 % = -0.23 %-1.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.13 %-6.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.07 % = -0.18 %-22.56 %
Sell Signals - 181 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.74 % = -0.23 %-1.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.16 %-8.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.10 %-13.09 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.74 % = 0.10 %0.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.15 % = 0.26 %13.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.07 % = 0.24 %30.99 %
Sell Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.74 % = -0.62 %-5.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.15 % = -0.46 %-23.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.07 % = -0.28 %-35.44 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 573 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.74 % = -0.06 %-0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %-0.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.07 % = 0.01 %1.79 %
Sell Signals - 572 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.74 % = -0.03 %-0.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %-0.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.07 % = 0.05 %6.30 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 826 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.74 % = -0.10 %-0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.15 % = -0.06 %-3.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.07 % = 0.02 %2.30 %
Sell Signals - 826 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.74 % = -0.07 %-0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.15 % = -0.03 %-1.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.07 % = 0.00 %0.61 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 338 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.74 % = -0.21 %-1.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.15 % = -0.09 %-4.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.01 %-1.28 %
Sell Signals - 339 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.74 % = -0.26 %-2.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.15 % = -0.13 %-6.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.07 % = -0.07 %-8.94 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.74 % = -0.20 %-1.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.15 % = 0.09 %4.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.07 % = 0.04 %5.69 %
Sell Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.74 % = -0.25 %-2.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.01 %0.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.02 %-2.26 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 0.74 % = 0.55 %4.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.15 % = 0.40 %20.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.07 % = 0.25 %31.48 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.74 % = 0.10 %0.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.15 % = 0.11 %5.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.07 % = 0.15 %18.54 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.74 % = -0.22 %-1.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.16 %-8.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.11 %-14.14 %
Sell Signals - 180 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.74 % = -0.22 %-1.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.15 % = -0.03 %-1.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.07 % = 0.07 %8.91 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.62 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.40 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.25 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for PGN Stock Prices