Moving Average Analysis of PHM

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From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Pulte Homes, Inc.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on PHM stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to PHM stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Pulte Homes, Inc.

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	In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 1.07 % = -0.08 %	-0.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.89 % minus 0.22 % = -1.10 %	-56.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.66 % minus 0.11 % = -0.77 %	-97.76 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 1.07 % = -0.32 %	-2.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.59 % minus 0.22 % = -0.81 %	-41.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.80 % minus 0.11 % = -0.91 %	-115.76 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.32 % minus 1.07 % = 0.25 %	2.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.22 % = 0.08 %	4.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.11 % = 0.09 %	11.31 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 1.07 % = -0.23 %	-1.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.17 % minus 0.22 % = -0.39 %	-19.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.02 %	-2.76 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.08 % minus 1.07 % = 1.01 %	8.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.41 % minus 0.22 % = 1.19 %	60.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.11 % = 1.06 %	134.96 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.42 % minus 1.07 % = 0.35 %	2.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.22 % = -0.36 %	-18.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.11 % = -0.09 %	-11.24 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 607 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 1.07 % = -0.26 %	-2.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.22 % = -0.40 %	-20.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.11 % = -0.30 %	-38.65 %
Sell Signals - 606 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 1.07 % = 0.10 %	0.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.22 % = 0.01 %	0.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.11 % = 0.16 %	20.41 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 811 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.97 % minus 1.07 % = -0.10 %	-0.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.22 % = 0.14 %	7.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.11 % = 0.13 %	16.61 %
Sell Signals - 811 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 1.07 % = -0.27 %	-2.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.22 % = -0.15 %	-7.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.11 % = -0.07 %	-8.88 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 326 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 1.07 % = -0.26 %	-2.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.22 % = 0.17 %	8.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.11 % = 0.50 %	63.26 %
Sell Signals - 325 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 1.07 % = -0.44 %	-3.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.22 % = -0.22 %	-11.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.11 % = -0.14 %	-17.53 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.80 % minus 1.07 % = 0.73 %	6.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 0.22 % = 0.67 %	33.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.11 % = 0.51 %	64.80 %
Sell Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.24 % minus 1.07 % = 0.16 %	1.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.22 % = 0.51 %	26.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.11 % = 0.29 %	36.26 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 1.07 % = -0.58 %	-4.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.23 % minus 0.22 % = -0.44 %	-22.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.11 % = 0.05 %	6.75 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 1.07 % = -0.98 %	-8.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.73 % minus 0.22 % = -0.94 %	-47.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.96 % minus 0.11 % = -1.07 %	-135.39 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 226 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.41 % minus 1.07 % = 0.34 %	2.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.22 % = 0.22 %	11.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.11 % = 0.17 %	21.96 %
Sell Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 1.07 % = -0.49 %	-4.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.22 % = 0.14 %	7.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.11 % = 0.06 %	7.16 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.01 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.98 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.19 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.94 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.06 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.07 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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