Moving Average Indicators for PNW

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

PNW: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Pinnacle West Capital Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on PNW stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for PNW.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on Nicor Inc., ticker symbol GAS. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning American International Group, Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.60 % minus 0.84 % = -2.44 %-20.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.26 % minus 0.16 % = -1.42 %-72.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.08 % = -0.32 %-41.18 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.42 % minus 0.84 % = -2.26 %-19.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.16 % = -0.46 %-23.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.08 % = -0.38 %-48.81 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 186 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.84 % = -0.31 %-2.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.16 % = 0.00 %-0.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.08 % = 0.11 %14.05 %
Sell Signals - 186 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.84 % = -0.15 %-1.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-2.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.04 %-5.43 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.15 % minus 0.84 % = -2.99 %-25.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.16 % = -0.84 %-42.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.52 % minus 0.08 % = -0.60 %-76.25 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.88 % minus 0.84 % = -1.72 %-14.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.16 % = -0.30 %-15.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %1.69 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 612 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.84 % = -0.14 %-1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %-3.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.03 %-3.55 %
Sell Signals - 612 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.84 % = -0.01 %-0.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %1.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %9.64 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 828 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.84 % = -0.06 %-0.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-2.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.02 %-2.64 %
Sell Signals - 827 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.84 % = 0.04 %0.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %0.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %10.21 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 317 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.84 % = -0.28 %-2.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.16 % = -0.14 %-7.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.09 %-11.65 %
Sell Signals - 317 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.84 % = -0.43 %-3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.16 % = -0.17 %-8.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.08 % = -0.18 %-23.49 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.84 % = -0.49 %-4.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.16 % = -0.24 %-12.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.08 % = -0.17 %-21.72 %
Sell Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.84 % = -0.59 %-5.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.26 %-13.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.08 % = -0.23 %-29.80 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.95 % minus 0.84 % = -2.79 %-23.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.16 % = -0.69 %-35.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.08 % = -0.18 %-22.92 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.84 % = -0.38 %-3.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.16 % = 0.34 %17.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.14 %-17.52 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 212 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.84 % = -0.42 %-3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.16 % = -0.12 %-6.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.08 % = -0.09 %-10.93 %
Sell Signals - 153 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.84 % = -0.13 %-1.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.16 % = -0.19 %-9.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.15 %-19.04 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was -0.06 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -2.26 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.00 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.11 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Moving Averages - PNW