Moving Average Indicators for PNW

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: In relation to the 200 bar moving average, PNW appears to be in phase 2 of the long term oscillation cycle. While still 14.00 % above the line, the gap has closed some since the end of last week.

PNW: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on PNW stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for PNW.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Pinnacle West Capital Corporation

	Companies In the News
	Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on AT and T, ticker symbol T. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. and Electronic Data Systems. From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from Mylan Inc., TECO Energy, Inc., MicroSoft, and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.60 % minus 0.84 % = -2.44 %	-20.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.26 % minus 0.16 % = -1.42 %	-72.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.24 % minus 0.08 % = -0.32 %	-41.03 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.42 % minus 0.84 % = -2.25 %	-19.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.29 % minus 0.16 % = -0.46 %	-23.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.30 % minus 0.08 % = -0.38 %	-48.66 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.84 % = -0.30 %	-2.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.16 % = 0.01 %	0.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.08 % = 0.12 %	15.22 %
Sell Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.84 % = -0.16 %	-1.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %	-2.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.04 %	-5.71 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-2.15 % minus 0.84 % = -2.99 %	-25.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.67 % minus 0.16 % = -0.83 %	-42.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.52 % minus 0.08 % = -0.60 %	-76.10 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.88 % minus 0.84 % = -1.72 %	-14.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.16 % = -0.30 %	-15.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %	1.84 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 615 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.84 % = -0.14 %	-1.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %	-3.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.03 %	-3.20 %
Sell Signals - 615 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.84 % = -0.01 %	-0.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %	0.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.07 %	8.87 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 833 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.78 % minus 0.84 % = -0.05 %	-0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %	-2.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.02 %	-2.81 %
Sell Signals - 832 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 0.84 % = 0.04 %	0.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %	0.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %	10.24 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 320 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.84 % = -0.30 %	-2.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.16 % = -0.15 %	-7.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %	-12.29 %
Sell Signals - 321 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.84 % = -0.43 %	-3.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.16 % = -0.17 %	-8.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.08 % = -0.18 %	-23.11 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.84 % = -0.47 %	-4.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.16 % = -0.24 %	-12.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.08 % = -0.16 %	-20.52 %
Sell Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.84 % = -0.57 %	-4.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.16 % = -0.25 %	-12.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.08 % = -0.22 %	-27.71 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.95 % minus 0.84 % = -2.78 %	-23.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.53 % minus 0.16 % = -0.69 %	-35.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.08 % = -0.18 %	-22.77 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.84 % = -0.38 %	-3.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.16 % = 0.34 %	17.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.14 %	-17.38 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 215 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.84 % = -0.43 %	-3.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.16 % = -0.13 %	-6.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %	-12.37 %
Sell Signals - 153 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.84 % = -0.13 %	-1.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.16 % = -0.19 %	-9.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.15 %	-18.90 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was -0.05 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -2.25 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.01 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.12 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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