Moving Average Analysis of PPD

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From the Weekend Report 7/23/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with PPD 14.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Pre-Paid Legal
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to PPD stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for PPD.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Pre-Paid Legal
Companies In the News
Friday, July 30, 2010: We have news on National Semiconductor Corporation, ticker symbol NSM. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Tenet Healthcare Corporation and Janus Capital Group Inc..

From the News Archive: (7/30/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Akamai Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Chemical Company, Motorola, and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.71 % minus 2.25 % = -0.54 %-4.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.46 % = 0.35 %17.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.23 % = 0.32 %40.66 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 2.25 % = -1.05 %-8.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.46 % = -0.04 %-2.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.23 % = 0.05 %6.52 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 122 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.00 % minus 2.25 % = -0.25 %-2.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.46 % = 0.27 %13.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.23 % = 0.42 %53.54 %
Sell Signals - 122 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.81 % minus 2.25 % = -0.44 %-3.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.46 % = -0.43 %-22.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.23 % = -0.29 %-36.99 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.38 % minus 2.25 % = 2.13 %18.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 2.08 % minus 0.46 % = 1.62 %82.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 0.23 % = 1.11 %140.83 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.06 % minus 2.25 % = 0.81 %6.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.46 % = 0.05 %2.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.23 % = 0.40 %51.32 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 439 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.23 % minus 2.25 % = -0.02 %-0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.46 % = 0.08 %3.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.23 % = -0.02 %-2.32 %
Sell Signals - 439 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.80 % minus 2.25 % = 0.55 %4.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.46 % = 0.43 %21.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.23 % = 0.14 %17.46 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 620 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.73 % minus 2.25 % = -0.52 %-4.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.46 % = -0.24 %-12.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.23 % = -0.26 %-32.60 %
Sell Signals - 620 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.58 % minus 2.25 % = -0.67 %-5.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.46 % = -0.21 %-10.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.23 % = -0.07 %-8.29 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 263 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 2.25 % = -1.00 %-8.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.46 % = -0.38 %-19.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.23 % = -0.47 %-60.22 %
Sell Signals - 263 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.88 % minus 2.25 % = -0.37 %-3.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.46 % = 0.26 %13.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.23 % = 0.33 %41.51 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.23 % minus 2.25 % = 0.98 %8.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.46 % = -0.16 %-8.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.23 % = -0.61 %-77.94 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.22 % minus 2.25 % = 1.97 %16.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.36 % minus 0.46 % = 0.91 %46.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.23 % = 0.57 %71.79 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.93 % minus 2.25 % = 0.68 %5.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.46 % = -0.14 %-7.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.23 % = -0.49 %-61.98 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.80 % minus 2.25 % = -0.45 %-3.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.46 % = -0.27 %-13.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.23 % = 0.02 %2.89 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 151 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.81 % minus 2.25 % = -0.44 %-3.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.46 % = -0.19 %-9.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.23 % = -0.12 %-15.50 %
Sell Signals - 128 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.31 % minus 2.25 % = 0.06 %0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.46 % = 0.11 %5.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.23 % = 0.01 %1.22 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.13 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.05 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.62 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.43 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.11 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.29 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for PPD Stock Prices